Phil T’s Top 26
Creating a top 25 was WAY too difficult this year, so I made a top 26. Even then, I feel like there are a couple teams I left out and could finish in the top 25. The extra team didn’t help as much as I thought it would, but still a fun gimmick.
DISCLAIMER: This ranking is not a “preseason” top 25, I don’t believe in ranking the teams before they play. This is a projection of where I think the teams will end up in the polls after the regular season. Time permitting, I will put out a weekly top 25 after the season starts but not before.
1. USC
2. Virginia Tech
3. LSU
4. Texas
5. West Virginia
6. Michigan
7. Oklahoma
8. Penn State
9. Florida State
10. Louisville
11. Georgia
12. Wisconsin
13. Oklahoma State
14. Oregon
15. Hawaii
16. Nebraska
17. Missouri
18. Tennessee
19. Alabama
20. South Florida
21. Ohio State
22. Texas A&M
23. South Carolina
24. Florida
25. TCU
26. Iowa
just missing out….
The Next 10: (these are teams that I consider have a very good shot at winding up in the top 25 depending on the voters and how they play in their last 4 games. All of these teams should be in the top 25 at some point in the season, but may not end up there)
27. Notre Dame
28. Purdue
29. Wake Forest
30. Arizona St
31. Arkansas
32. Memphis
33. California
34. Miami, FL
35. UCLA
36. Rutgers
Big East Preview
1. West Virgina – gets Louisville at home and after a bye week, I don’t have to tell you about Steve Slaton and Pat White. 7 back on offense, 8 on defense.
2. Louisville – @WVU, @USF, @NC State. November is tough with WVU and USF in back to back weeks. 8 back on offense (can you say Brohm for Heismann), 6 back on defense. Still, I don’t like picking 1st year coaches to go undefeated, but the schedule is easy enough.
3. South Florida – 9 back on offense, 7 back on defense. Get WVU and LOU at home. Non conference though against Auburn and UNC probably hurts although both of those games are winnable.
4. Rutgers – The season hasn’t started yet and I’m tired of hearing Ray Rice’s name. Draw WVU and USF at home so BCS is possible if they can find a way to win those. If so, Nov 29 game against LOU could be even bigger than last years. 7 back on offense, 6 back on defense.
5. Pittsburgh – Dave Wannstedt’s 3rd year, actually started 6-1 last year, USF at home, most other Big East games against the top of the conference are on the road. Michigan St and Virginia as out of conference games. 8 back on offense, but lose their starting QB, 6 back on offense.
6. Cincinnati – 16 starters back (8 on O, 8 on D), 4-3 in Big East last year, 8-5 overall. Lost head coach to Michigan St. Plays Oregon St out of conference, travels to San Diego St. @Rutgers, @USF, @Pitt. Possibly more talented team than last year, but probably can’t match 8 wins. New coach, tougher schedule. It will be interesting to see how Brian Kelly does as head coach there. He was 118-35-2 at Grand Valley St (Div II) and never had a losing season and 2 national titles. At Central Michigan, he led them to 2 winning seasons in 3 years including last years MAC Championship.
7. Connecticut - 8 back on offense, 6 back on defense. 4-8 record, but lost 44 starts to injury last year so should top that and could be bowl eligible. Defense should improve upon last years uncharacteristic year.
8. Syracuse – Hard to believe this team was at the top of the Big East just a few years ago. Fewest returning starters in the Big East (12 – 7 O, 5 D), and last year they were #110 in offense, #107 in defense. Non conference games are an improved Washington team, @Iowa, and against one of my surprise teams Illinois. Might not even match 4-8 of last year.
SEC East Preview
One of the toughest conferences to predict every year and this year is no different. Especially with Vanderbilt and South Carolina playing their best football, well, ever.
Here goes nothing.
1. Georgia - The offense struggled all year last year, especially in the 1st half of the season. This year, Stafford should get all the starts and be much improved. They have 7 back on offense, including lots of talent and experience at the skill positions. The defense has just 4 starters back, but the D is always strong. Prediction: 9-3 (6-2)
2. Tennessee – I’m having a hard time with predicting the Vols this year. Sometimes, I look over the schedule and I see 9 or 10 wins, other times, 6-7. They have just 11 returning starters, 6 on offense, and 5 on defense. They have a great quarterback, but Ainge loses his top 3 targets and his entire receiving corps is largely unproven. The defense gave up a lot of yards last year, and with only 5 back, in a division and conference that requires great defense to be good will be tough. I like the front 7 better this year than last though, especially at linebacker where I think Rico McCoy has a breakout year. The schedule though includes road games at Florida, California, and Alabama though. Prediction: 9-3 (5-3)
T-3. Florida – The defending champs lose a lot of talent to the NFL and graduation. Still, this is a talented team and its Urban Meyer’s 3rd year there, normally an indication of success. They also had 5 net close wins last year, an indication of a decline in record. The offense returns 6 starters and will be dependant on Tim Tebow to carry the team. If his passing game struggles, teams can load up on him and it could be a long season. The offense will probably be ok, but the defense only returns 2 starters!! Luckily the schedule starts easy and at home for the first 3 games and then has a winnable game @ Ole Miss before the schedule toughens drastically. With games @ LSU, Georgia, and South Carolina and plenty of question marks on defense, it will be very tough to repeat as national champs. But next year, look out for this team. Prediction: 8-4 (4-4)
T-3. South Carolina – I hate to admit it, but this is probably Spurriers best team yet, and its that magical 3rd year for him. The defense will be much improved this year (10 returning starters), over a unit that gave up just 18.7 points per game last year. They’ve had a couple good recruiting classes now but must prove it on the field. Blake Mitchell isn’t a great QB but is capable enough in Spurriers system and if Stephen Garcia can avoid the law the whole season, could see playing time as a true freshman. Time will tell if Kenny McKinley can produce at WR with Rice gone and Kenny getting more attention from defenses. Cory Boyd is among the best ball carriers in the conference. If everything goes right and the team can win a couple of the close games that have gotten away from them the last 30 years, they have the talent and coaching to win 10 games and possibly win the East this year for the 1st time in school history. Prediction: 8-4 (4-4)
5. Vanderbilt – I am going to make a bold statement. This is Bobby Johnson’s last year at Vanderbilt. Why? Because I’m predicting them to go to their 1st bowl game since 1982 and he’ll be hired away by a bigger school and it’ll be back to the basement for the Commodores. 10 starters are back on offense including Chris Nickson, who lead the team in rushing last year as well. The defense has 8 back, including 7 of their top 8 tacklers from last year. It’s Johnson’s most talented team so far. Plus, they have 8 home games. Their road games are tough (S Carolina, Auburn, Florida, Tennessee) and play Wake Forest out of conference. Still, save your pennies Commodore fans, you could be going bowling this season.
6. Kentucky – Somehow, Kentucky also wound up with 8 home games this year. Yet, despite returning quite a bit of talent, especially on offense, it will be difficult for this team to match last years 7 regular season wins. They have 7 back on offense (including QB Woodson 2nd team SEC, RB Little 1st team SEC ’05, WR Burton 1st team SEC) and 8 back on defense. But the defense game up over 450 ypg last year and overall, they were outscored by 1.7 ppg. It will take another year of luck to match last years 8 win total, even though the team is equally talented. Prediction: 4-8 (1-7).
SEC West Preview
1. LSU – There are not many publications out there that are not calling for LSU to be the kings of the SEC this year. I’ve ever heard many say that the Tigers should have been in the National Championship game last year. Florida deserved to be in the BCS title game more than any other team in the country. They deserved it, LSU didn’t. This year, it could be LSU’s turn. The schedule is favorable as only 1 team they face on the road had a winning season last year. They do have to fave Virginia Tech though in week 2. They will have to beat VT and travel to Bama and win there in November though, as well as play hard every week as this will be a very competitive year in the SEC. It will be tough to replace a #1 draft pick and both starting receivers. The offense has just 6 starters back, and the defense has 8. The defense is the best in the conference and should be a spectacle to watch. Prediction. 11-1 (8-0).
2. Arkansas – This team returns a lot of talent from last years surprise 10 win season. The schedule gets tougher this year with road games at Tennessee, LSU, and Alabama. They also had some offseason turmoil (in the athletic department and with the team) that will hopefully not distract the players. They do have one of the best sets of RBs in the country. The defense returns only 6 starters and 4 out of the 6 tacklers are gone, so they will have some catching up to do on defense. Prediction: 9-3 (5-3)
3. Alabama – Is it an understatment to call Alabama a potential surprise team. Honestly, this team has the coaching to go 8-0 in the SEC. Nick Saban rolls into Tuscaloosa this year and brings with him his hand picked staff from across the country. Despite being 2-6 in the SEC last year, they outgained opponents by 32 yards per game. The offense returns 9 starters back including a veteren QB in John Parker Wilson and two great receivers in DJ Hall and Keith Brown. The passing game will open up a decent running game for whoever wins the starting job, most likely one of their top recruits, Terry Grant. The defense returns 6 starters. They get Georgia, Tennessee, Arkansas, and LSU at home. This will probably be the last year the college football has to prepare itself for the return of Alabama as a Top 5 team for the next 10 years. Prediction: 8-4 (5-3). (And picking them to lose 4 scares me, it could be a lot less).
4. Auburn – Unfortunately, I think Tommy Tuberville is going to be in the hot seat after this season. He shouldn’t be. He’s 22-3 in the SEC over the last 3 years and has been a national title contender numerous times in his tenure. But Tiger fans have short memories and this is certainly a rebuilding year at Auburn. The Tigers had 5 net close wins last year (normally a sign of a decline in win total this coming year), and are a very young team. They have just 12 scholarship seniors on the entire team. They have just 5 starters back on offense and 7 back on defense. The schedule is also very tough, travelling to Georgia, Florida, Arkansas, and LSU and playing an improved Kansas State team out of conference. I don’t see the Tigers vying for the SEC West this year, but should at least be bowl eligible. Prediction: 7-5 (3-5)
5. Mississippi State – The win-loss record doesn’t show it, but over the last 2 years the Bulldogs have been improving. During Croom’s first 2 years, the school was put on probation, lost scholarships (this is his 1st season with a full scholarship allotment), and over 20 players quit or got kicked off the team. Last year, they were 4 plays away from being 7-5 instead of 3-9. This season, they have 9 starters back on offense, but just 5 back on defense. If they can get lucky in a few games, they could be bowl bound. Prediction: 4-8 (1-7).
6. Mississippi – It could be another long year in Oxford. The Running Rebels to have 9 starters back on offense, and 6 starters back on defense. Coach Ed Orgeron is a top notch defensive coach though and the defense will once again be solid. Traditionally, coaches show a large improvement in their 3rd year and this team started 17 true freshman last year and will show signs of life this year for the first time since Eli left. But most of their winnable SEC games (Miss St, Vandy) are on the road and they play a tough Missouri team out of conference. Prediction: 3-9 (0-8)
ACC Atlantic Preview
1. Florida State – Despite coming off their 1st losing season in ACC play, they are my favorite to win the Atlanta division. This team is loaded with talent. Bowden brought in Chuck Amato, Jimbo Fisher, and Rick Trickett this year to improve an offense that has struggled for 2-3 years now. They have 14 returning starters, and the schedule is set up that they could nearly run the table and be a contender for the National Title. They have some tough games, playing @Clemson, vs Alabama at a neutral site, @Wake Forest, @Boston College, and @Florida to close out the season. Prediction: 9-3 (6-2).
2. Wake Forest – Jim Grobe is an excellent coach, but the Deacons also had a lot of luck last year as well. They were the 1st team ever to win 6 ACC road games, even through they were outgained by 57 yards per game and without their starting QB and RB. Last year, they have 5 net close wins, which normally means a drop off the next season, but they are a more talented team this year. They have 9 back on offense, and only 5 back on defense. Prediction: 9-3 (6-2).
3. Clemson – The hardest team for me to pick every year. Tommy Bowden is in the hot seat again after his Tigers started 7-1 last year, were #10 in the nation, leading Virginia Tech in Lane Stadium 7-0, when the wheels came off and they never recovered, finishing 8-4, then getting beat by Kentucky in a bowl game they never really showed up for. They have one of the better defenses in the conferences, especially against the run, and two of the top 2 running backs in the country. They lose 4 off the offensive line and only return 5 on offense, and only return 7 on defense. They have enough talent to win 10 with their schedule, but only have the coaching to win 6, especially with no senior leadership (which is important when you aren’t getting motivation and leadership from your coaches). It could be a long season in Death Valley. Prediction: 7-5 (4-4).
T-4. NC State – This team should be much improved under Tom O’Brien. Chucky Amato was a great recruiter, but an undisciplined coach and his teams lacked direction and focus and won mostly on talent. So O’Brien brings his brand of strict discipline and should have this team back in the post season. They have have 8 back on offense, and 5 back on defense. Prediction 6-6, (3-5).
T-4. Maryland – Last year, Maryland started 3-2 and had lots of luck down the stretch with 6 very close wins and finished 5-3 in the ACC. They were outgained by 86 yards per game and won all 5 league games by a combined 13 points. Odds are, they won’t be so lucky this year. They lose senior leader and QB Hollenback, but do return 8 on offense and 6 on defense. A bowl is possible, but don’t expect another 9 wins this year. Prediction: 6-6 (4-4).
5. Boston College – I’m not real fond of 1st year coaches, especially when the hire was controversal and leads to tension on the coaching staff. They start the season vs. Wake Forest, NC State, then @ Georgia Tech, which is a tough way to start. Then the second half of the season they have 6 straight games against teams that went to a bowl last year. The schedule is tough and it’ll be VERY tough for this team to match 10 wins from last year. Prediction: 5-7 (2-6).
ACC Coastal Preview
Coastal Division
1. Virginia Tech – This team will be on an emotional high all season, that said, there will be a lot of pressure put on this team by the community and hopefully that won’t overwhelm this very talented team that returns 8 starters on each side of the ball. They’ll have an emotional home opener against ECU and then travel to LSU. The winner of that game could finish the season undefeated. This will be the best defense in the league, and RB Brandon Ore will have to stay healthy for the team to stand a chance at undefeated. The schedule is tough, but I like the Hokies to ride an emotional roller coaster to 12 wins this season. Prediction: 12-0 (8-0).
2. Miami – This team is coming off tough 7-6 season where A LOT went wrong. A LOT. They regained their ‘thug’ reputation last year, stomping on the logo in Louisville before getting beat, the brawl against FIU, numerous arrests, and just 23,000 in attendance in the final home game. However, they return 16 starters and the D will be ahead of the offense with Randy Shannon at the helm. Patrick Nix joins as offense coordinator (formerly of Georgia Tech), and I can’t figure out if that is a good hire or not. They have a very tough schedule, with games at Oklahoma, vs. Texas A&M, @ Florida St, @Virginia Tech, and @ Boston College. Prediction 8-4, (4-4)
3. Georgia Tech – Last year, despite having to play 9 teams that went to bowl games the year before, the Yellow Jackets were 9-5. However, they had 4 close losses that could have made them 13-1, but negate that with 4 close wins that could have made them 5-9. This is a team that has struggled with inconsistency every year under Gailey. The offense have 7 starters back and the defense has 8 back. Despite losing veteran QB Reggie Ball and star WR Calvin Johnson, the offensive line is one of the best in the conference and RB Choice should find plenty of running room because of it. Prediction: 7-5, 5-3.
3. Virginia – Al Groh is in the hot seat this year as the Virginia fans are anxious to win and don’t see Al making this team any better than mediocre. He’ll probably need 8-9 wins to keep his job. It’s possible though as the non conference schedule is made up of Wyoming, Pitt, MTSU, and Uconn and they get Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, and Virginia Tech at home (although Scott Stadium isn’t that imposing to visiting teams) and they get to play UNC early, when Butch Davis’ Tar Heels are still inexperienced and learning his schemes. The Cavs return 9 on offense and 10 on defense. If this team isn’t in the postseason, it will be a huge disappointment. Prediction: 7-5, 3-5.
4. North Carolina – Butch Davis takes over a team that had a difficult time filling out the highlight reel last season. But Butch was 51-20 was at Miami and ran a very clean program. Expect the same kind of results here eventually, with great facilities and good fans. They have just 9 starters back total and Davis will likely play many of his own recruits, making this a very young, raw team. Ultimately, this team is a year away from a decent bowl, and about 3 years away from competing for the league title. Prediction: 6-6 (3-5)
5. Duke – The Blue Devils have been the doormat of the ACC for as long as I can remember, and that isn’t changing anytime soon. On the bright side, they return every starter, 2 deep on offense. And the offense was only outgained by 115 ypg last year in league play, which is good for Duke. The defense returns 5, but the others have some degree of experience. I’ll predict this team to break the nation’s longest losing streak (20 games) at some point during the season, but that’s about it. 1-11 (0-8).
Big 12 North Preview
Time to finally finish up in the Big 12…
1. Nebraska – No real surprise here as most people are calling for Nebraska to take this division. There are heavy losses on both side of the ball with only 11 returning starters. But QB Sam Keller played at Arizona St in 2005 and sat out his transfer year last season learning the system and they return 4 of their top 5 tacklers. They have a big, experienced offensive line leading the way. Despite playing Texas and USC, 10 wins is a good possibility. Winning the division will probably take winning at Missouri. If they can do that, they’ll be back in the Big 12 title game. Prediction: 9-3, 6-2
2. Missouri – In my opinion, the Tigers have a good shot at getting to their first ever Big 12 title game this year. They are coming off an 8-5 year, but really 3 of those losses were close, last second losses that if they can turn in their favor this year, they could have a great season. Last year, they started 7-1, before a holding call negated their winning TD against Iowa St. They return 9 on offense, including QB Chase Daniel who was #2 in total offense in the Big 12 last year. With the Kansas game at a neutral site, they have only 3 Big 12 road games and get Nebraska at home. Prediction: 9-3, 5-3
3. Kansas – This is a team that despite the nonconference schedule having several tough MAC opponents, could very well start the season 5-1, which will build a lot of confidence later in the season. They also avoid Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas Tech from the South. They’ll be bowl eligible by the end of October and with 8 back on defense, they should be competitive in most of their games. Prediction: 7-5, 3-5
4. Kansas State – Ron Prince is still rebuilding this team and making it his own. He returns 8 starters on offense and will be much improved there as they are in their 2nd year of the new offense. QB Josh Freeman improved as the season progressed last year and will only be better and more reliable this season. The defense has 7 starters back, but has a new defense coordinator in Tim Tibesar (formerly of North Dakota). This is an improved team and should make a return trip to a bowl game this year. Prediction: 6-6, 3-5
5. Colorado – This is the 2nd year of Dan Hawkins offenses, so look for vast improvement in the offense over last year. Plus, the projected starting QB is the coach’s son, so who could possibly know the offense better? They have 9 starters back on offense and 6 back on defense, and I look for this team to improve on their 2-10 record of last year and if they catch a few breaks, they could even make it to a bowl game. The schedule is tough though as they play 7 teams that went to a bowl last year, including improved Miami, FL and Florida State teams. Prediction: 5-7, 5-3
6. Iowa St – 1st year coach GeneChizik (former defensive coordinator at Auburn) has a long year ahead of him. All 4 of their wins last year were close wins and they were outgained by an average of 131 yards per game all last season. New coaches on both sides of the ball and only 11 starters back could make for some tough times in Ames, IA this season. Prediction: 3-9, 0-8