Big East Preview
I’m running out of time, so I will again foresake detail on my Big East preview and just summarize. This conference will be a battle between West Virginia and South Florida. Both of these teams have the potential to go underbeaten and they may meet each other on Dec 6th for a chance at 12-0. My guess though is more like the winner moving to 11-1.
1. South Florida – this is the year I think they take it to the next level, 10 starters back on offense and lots of talent on defense.
2. West Virginia – Offensively, this team will be solid again, but they lose a lot of talent on defense and as we’ve seen from this team the past couple seasons, you can’t win every game on defense.
3. Rutgers – the loss of Ray Rice is the only question mark, but the schedule includes several cupcakes to help pad the record
4. Pittsburgh – A great defense should keep them in every game and if last years WVU game is any indication, they could come out on top if they play with that much intensity every game.
5. Cincinnati – I don’t see them getting to 10 wins again this season, but nevertheless, a talented bunch and should be bowl bound.
6. Louisville – Just 9 returning starters, but I feel last year was a let down year for the Card and Hunter Cantwell should return them to the Top 25 for at least a short stint this season and get this team back to a bowl.
7. Connecticut – This team has come a long way the last couple seasons, but they caught several breaks last year in their ‘breakout’ year that I don’t see them repeating. It should be back to near the bottom for the Huskies.
8. Syracuse – It’s hard to believe this was a top team just a decade ago, oh how the mighty have fallen. Ironically, this is the best Syracuse team in a few years, but the record won’t show it as there’s just too much gap to make up here. They may luck out and pull an upset or two, but don’t look for more than 2-3 wins out of this team.
SEC Preview
East
1. Florida – A quality team last year, that has is now much more experienced. They have 16 returning starters, and they have just 3 SEC roads games (plus 1 neutral site game). It should be another great year for the Gators and I look for them to return to double digit wins.
2. Georgia – A lot of experts picked UGA to win it all. I just don’t see it. There are too many Friday nights between now and the Nat’l Championship game for this group of thugs. They have a great defense, but Stafford isn’t that great of a QB and Moreno is a good tailback that defenses now know to key on.
3. Tennessee – This team could possibly be better than last years, which found a way to win the SEC East. Their biggest loss is Erik Ainge and I felt he was overrated anyway. Their game at S Carolina on Nov 1 will decide 3rd and 4th in the division.
4. S Carolina – The defense should be very good and they return 7 starters on offense. But surprisingly, Spurrier has yet to find a QB at South Carolina and his QB woes should continue this year. It’ll be neck and neck in the division between the Cocks and the Dawgs for who has the most thugs and the UGA-USC game on Sep 13th could set a record for most players on the field on parole. Wonder if that’s a stat the NCAA keeps. However, that won’t stop the Spurrier from getting this team to its 3rd bowl in 4 years and around 7 wins.
5. Kentucky – This team will get by on its defense. Something that could win you a few games in this conference, but with questions and major losses at QB, RB, and WR, it could be a long year. This is a team that could probably contend for the Big East title, but will have to settle for 5th in the SEC East.
6. Vanderbilt – The Commodores have shown a lot more life over the last couple years and have just missed out on getting to a bowl game. I don’t think this year will be any different as this is a young team, but look for them to challenge for a bowl next year.
West – slowly becoming just as tough as the East
1. Auburn – Tommy’s best team in a couple seasons avoids Florida and gets Tennessee and Georgia at home this year. They have 16 returning starters, including 9 on offense and I think Kodi Burns has a big season as their new QB. This could be a National championship team.
2. LSU – With 2 titles in 5 years, it’s hard to count this team out. I almost put them 3rd in the division, but they are just so talented. Their schedule this year is tough so I don’t see them matching 12 wins from a year ago, but they will be near the top of the standings all year and if the season is as whacky as last year, they could be in the title game as well.
3. Alabama – I feel that Bama was better than their 7-6 record last year and I was disappointed in how they approached the games they were supposed to win. Saban has had 2 good recruiting classes now and I think they will be improved yet again. If they don’t better 7 wins this year, Saban will be called into question by the Bama faithful who are already out of patience waiting for this team to be dominant again. I think 8 or 9 wins is a reasonable expectation.
4. Mississippi – The Rebels should make it to a bowl in Houston Nutt’s first season. Ed O was a great recruiter, but just couldn’t find a way to win with the talent he had. Nutt won’t have that problem. The defense returns its top 14 tacklers. They lose a great running back in Green-Ellis, but freshman Enrique Davis fits into Nutt’s system well and Soph QB Snead has a good receiver set and a great o-line in front of him.
5. Mississipp State – I don’t foresee the Bulldogs matching their 8-5 season, but they should at least be competitive again this year. The biggest loss to MSU wasn’t a player, but a coach. Defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson departed for South Carolina and his defenses made the difference in turning this team around. A bowl is not out of the question for this team, but they will need to pull an upset or two to make it happen.
6. Arkansas – It is hard to pick this team to finish in the basement after they’ve been to 2 staight New Years day bowls, but they lose two NFL caliber RBs and new head coach Bobby Petrino (who is a great college coach but I’m still clueless as to why they let Houston Nutt go) will switch them to a passing offense. Currently, I don’t see them having the players to make that work in the SEC and that is normally a 3-4 year process anyway. Just ask Steve Spurrier, he’s still working on it. Letting Nutt go set this team back several seasons and it will be tough to get back to the top as I see Bama and Miss moving to the top of the pile (along with LSU and Aub who aren’t going anywhere) over the next couple seasons.
ACC Preview
This is always the toughest league for me to predict because I follow it so closely, but as always, we’ll give it the old college try.
Coastal Division
1. Virginia Tech – Surprisingly, this team has gotten little media attention this year and has flown under the radar with all the hype that UNC and MIA will be improved. They are still the class of the division though and I don’t see anyone knocking them off their pedestal, even in somewhat of a rebuilding year.
2. North Carolina – I try not to buy into the media hype about a team, but Butch Davis returns 18 starters in the second year of his system and neither Miami or Georgia Tech impress me enough to pick them here. I think North Carolina returns to a bowl this year.
3. Miami – Just 11 returning starters and neither of the QB’s on this team have thrown a pass in college football. Ouch. Regardless, I don’t see how this team is much worse than last year. They have a lot of talent and I think they will be a force come the end of the season.
4. Georgia Tech – They have just 9 returning starters (fewest in ACC) and a 1st year coach who will drastically change the offense. They do have a shot at being bowl eligible, but GT fans should consider this a rebuilding year. Be thankful you have a great coach in Paul Johnson and book your trip to the 2010 ACC Championship game.
5. Wait for it… Duke – That’s right, I’m picking the Blue Devils to not finish in the basement. They’ve been close to winning an ACC game the last couple years and new head coach David Cutcliffe (who never should have been fired from Ole Miss) steps into a great situation. They return a lot of talent and I think 2 ACC wins are not out of the question.
6. Virginia – Al Groh should have been fired 4 seasons ago. Honestly, I have no idea how this team won 9 games last year and still managed to lose to Wyoming. Well, they won 5 games by 2 points or less so they easily could have had a much worse record and this team has a ton of holes and won’t get as lucky in those close games. Will a winless ACC season send Al packing? I hope not, I like to see the Cavs lose.
Atlantic Division
1. Clemson – The Tigers have the most talent in the ACC (same as the last 2 years), but still, they have a history of coming up just short of expectations. This year, they have a favorable schedule and it will be interesting to see if the Tigers can finally make it to the ACC Championship game. With Davis and Spillar in the backfield again this year, I think the Tigers finally get it done.
2. Wake Forest – Jim Grobe is one of the best coaches in the country and I’m glad he chose to stay at Wake. He is certainly changing the perception of Wake football as they are no longer pushovers. This could be his best team yet and Wake should easily gets third straight winning season, which would be a first.
3. Florida State – Hard to believe this team won the title just 3 short years ago as it’s been a tough couple years for the Noles. But they have a lot of talent back on D (8 starters) and experience at all the skill positions on offense. Bobby Bowden knows what it takes to win in the ACC and they will certainly be a tough out for any team this year. They get Wake and Clemson at home, so they could easily contend for the ACC title.
4. Boston College – I made the mistake of underestimating the Eagles last year, and I hope they don’t make a fool of me again. I still think Matt Ryan was overrated, but the loss of him makes a big difference. Without him, those close wins last year don’t happen. They have just 10 returning starters, but should still win their first 5 games. That’s when the schedule toughens and I don’t see them matching their 11 wins from last year.
5. Maryland – The Terps should be bowling again as this is a talented team. They have great receivers and should see improvement at the QB and RB positions. Questions on defense is the only reason I put them behind Boston College, but they could easily have a 8 or 9 win season if a few balls bounce their way.
6. NC State – Sorry Wolfpack fans, Tom O’brien has a good hire, but he still has a lot of work to do before he gets the kind of talent here that he had at BC. And I don’t think it’s nearly as easy to recuit to NC State as it was to BC. Not only are they not as talented as the other teams in the division, but they also are not as experienced. They schedule also tough as they play South Carolina, USF, and ECU out of conference. They are improved, but I don’t look for them to be better than their 5-7 record last year.
Pac 10 Preview
Maybe it’s my “East Coast bias”, but I look for the Pac 10 to be down this year, but overrated like always. USC is still the class of the confence, but Arizona St, Cal, and Oregon should give them a better run for their money this year.
1. USC – Last year, they were 7-2 in the conference. I don’t see 2 conference losses this year. I think they go down Oregon (and Ohio State out of conference) early, but roll after that. I foresee another BCS win for Pete Carroll, it’s just a matter of which one.
2. Oregon – The loss of Dennis Dixon and Jonathan Stewart takes a lot of explosiveness out of the offense, but they’ve been able to reload in the past and I see them doing that again this year too. But the schedule is tough (@USC, @ASU, @Cal, @rival Ore State, and @Purdue out of conference) and key losses at the skill positions will take time to develop. Still, I look for them to match last years 9 win total.
T-3. California – Despite having 8 starters returning on defense, they have just 4 on offense. Tedford is known for this offense and has plenty of holes to fill this year. I look for them to top last years 7-6 season, but not by much.
T-3. Arizona State – I don’t look for the Sun Devils to top last years 10 wins, but this is still a very good team. In fact, they are probably better than last years team, but too many winnable conference games are on the road and they play UGA out of conference. Rudy Carpenter does return his top two receivers and they should be potent on offense again. 8 wins is reasonable.
5. Arizona – Arizona needs to finish here to save Stoops job. With 10 returning starters on offense and a defense that’s better than it’s 3 returning starters would indicate (plus Stoops is great defensive coach), I look for the ‘Cats to return to the post season this year.
6. Oregon State – My main concern is the defensive front seven, they are all new. It will be tough to compete in this league with that much inexperience and their tough schedule (playing Utah and Penn St out of conference). Riley is a great coach, but don’t look for another 9 win season out of the Beavers this year.
T-7. UCLA – The Rick Neuheisel era begins at UCLA. Although, I called for them to be 8-4 last year, many ‘experts’ called for them to be much better and this team did nothing but disappoint in a year with tons of talent and a lighter schedule. Now, with 9 returning starters, a tough schedule (Tenn, Fresno and BYU out of conference), and a new coach, it could be tough to match last year’s 6-7. I don’t see the Bruins going bowling this year.
T-7. Stanford – The Card surprised a lot of teams last year and they got a surprising 3 conference wins. This is a young team, but still returns 16 starters. They are about a year away from a winning season, but if they can get to 6 wins before Nov 8th, they’ll be bowling. I don’t see it though. Give Harbaugh another 3 years and this team could challenge for the top of the Pac10.
9. Washington – Tyrone Willingham’s 4th season. This is about the time the wheels have come off at the other programs he’s been at. They play one of the nation’s toughest schedules and have just 11 upperclassmen starters. Ouch. They will be happy to match last years 4 wins.
10. Washington State – Paul Wulff took this job with a long road ahead of him. I call for Washington to have another losing season as the player make the adjustment to the new coach and Wulff tries to put things together. It could be a long season in Pullman.
Big 12 North Preview
1. Missouri – No suprise here. They avoid Oklahoma and Texas Tech from the South and 2 of their 4 road games are against Baylor and Iowa State. The defense has 8 returning starters and that will be the difference in getting the Tigers to their second straight chance at a Big 12 title.
2. Nebraska – Surprise, I know, but I think the Huskers buy into Pelini’s scheme and have a good year. They should go from losing season to a decent bowl game. They have good, experienced lines on both sides of the ball is why I have them at #2 over Kansas.
3. Kansas – Sorry, Jayhawk fans, but your schedule is brutal and I think the loss of WR Marcus Henry and RB Brandon McAnderson hurt pretty bad. They draw Texas, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech from the South and USF non-conference. With Mizzou, Nebraska, and Colorado all more talented this year, I look for the Jayhawks to lose 3-4 games.
4. Colorado – Colorado should find it’s way back into a bowl this season as they return 8 starters on defense and they are in the 3rd year of Hawkins offensive system. There could produce a few more upsets this year
5. Kansas St – This team returns just 12 starters, but pulls a ton of juco transfers (19). I’m not a big fan of Ron Prince as a coach or his choice of coordinators. They will all be lucky to still be coaching here next season.
6. Iowa State – I look for the Cycles to be more competitive this year, but they could be in for another losing season. This is just Chiznik’s second season and he still has a long way to go. However, I think Phillip Bates at QB/WR and QB Austen Arnaud could be interesting to watch as they develop. They do lose a NCAA high 25 lettermen though (48% of team). Still, I look for them to slightly better last seasons record.
Big 12 South Preview
Always a hard division to pick, but here goes.
1. Oklahoma – The Sooners have another great team and another good shot at running the table and getting to the National Championship game. Even after being manhandled in the bowl game to WVU, I look for this team to rebound and win the Big 12 overall as well as the South.
2. Texas Tech – A lot of people are getting on the Leach bandwagon this year and I’m one of them. His best defense yet and I don’t think I have to mention Crabtree and Harrell, both of whom will rewrite the record books this season. If would not surprise me to see them come into Norman on Nov 22 10-0, facing a 10-0 Oklahoma team.
3. Texas – A talented team to pick 3rd, especially since I see them as a legitimate National Title contender. Drawing Kansas and Missouri out of the North hurts though and they have the toughest schedule of each of the top 3 teams. I just don’t see them coming through it unscathed.
4. Oklahoma State – OSU disappointed me last season as I had them as one of my top teams. They struggled out of the gate and basically throughout several parts of the season. To me, that’s coaching. Gundy lost this temper at a press conference, and lost my confidence in his ability as well. I predict they match last years 7 win total and go bowling, but they are talented enough to win more.
5. Texas A&M – New coach Mike Sherman has just 10 returning starters, but does have an experienced QB in Stephen McGee. Both sides of the ball must learn completly new schemes and both O-line and D-line have several question marks. I don’t see them having a losing season, but don’t look for them to make a huge impact this season. My prediction is about 7 or 8 wins.
6. Baylor – Poor Baylor Bears. I will say this, I like the hire of Art Briles. Now, if the administration just gives him about 5 years to turn it around and then sticks with him through season after seasons of around 6 wins (you’re Baylor, be happy with 6 wins and an occasional 7 or 8 win season). Look for about a 3 wins this season.
Big Ten Preview
With the Big 10 this year, I’m not sure it’s a matter or who’s going to win it, but who is going to finish second. And the better question is, who’s finishing third. I feel like Ohio State is the class of the Big 10 and Penn State is right behind them holding down second.
1. Ohio State – Last year it seemed like no one wanted to be in the Championship game and Ohio State possibly made it in a year earlier than they should have with this team by sneaking in. The addition of Terrelle Pryor is a bonus and if Tressell is smart, he’ll use him like Florida used Tebow as a freshman. Prediction 11-1, 7-1
2. Penn State – Even with the loss of Sean Lee for the season in the spring, this team returns 9 starters on defense and 9 on offense. The biggest holes are at RB and QB, where they lose a ton of experience. They have to go on the road to face Ohio State, Iowa, and Wisconsin though. Prediction: 10-2, 6-2
3. Illinois – Illinois jumped onto the scene last year and Ron Zook finally make people take notice again of the Fighting Illini. The loss of Mendendall to the NFL hurts, but I think Juice will have a big year in his absence. It’s tough to pick them to match their nine wins of last year, but the way the schedule works out, I think it’s possible. Prediction: 9-3, 6-2
4. Wisconsin – Classic Big Ten football this year for the Badgers as they will live and die based on their ability to run the ball and play defense. This team will only go as far as PJ Hill can carry them. Which will be about 9 wins. 9-3, 5-3
5. Northwestern – The Wildcats are my surprise team in the Big 10. I know they have new coordinates calling the shots, but I like the talent on this team and they have the schedule to make an impact.
6. Iowa – Here’s where the bunching starts. Starting about 6th, I see several teams that are all about equal. I have the Hawkeyes here because of the talent they have returning on offense. Not facing OSU or Michigan gives the Hawkeyes a great chance for their first winning season in 3 years and anything short of going bowling will be a disappointment for this team.
7. Michigan – Hard to pick UM at 7th in the Big 10 but with all the losses (only 10 returning starters, including just 3 on offense), it’s hard to imagine them making too much of a splash in Rodriguez’s first year. They will be lucky to squeak into a bowl this year.
8. Purdue – I almost switched Purdue and Iowa as I think the Boilermakers will want to do well in Tiller’s last season, and I think Painter, Sheets, and Orton each have like 8 years experience. But they only return 2 of their top 7 tacklers from a defense that was mediocre at best. It’d be nice to see them finish in a bowl, but it’ll be tough.
9. Michigan State – It’ll be another long season for the Spartans as I don’t see them matching last seasons 7 win total. A bowl game would be considered a huge success for this team, but I just don’t see it.
10. Minnesota – Gopher fans will be glad to see I’m not picking the Gophers dead last this season. I think this team surpasses their 1 win season of a year ago, but I don’t look for more than 5. I look for them to pull at least one major upset, maybe Michigan or Wisconsin and if the cards fall right they could go bowling. If not this year, I think they are definitely in a bowl next year.
11. Indiana – It pains me to pick the Hoosiers here as I do consider myself a fan. They do get their start QB Kellen Lewis back after being suspended in the spring and they are tough up front defensively, but I don’t see them matching last years 7 wins. I just hope the Hoosiers stick with coach Lynch through this tough season as I think good things are in store in the long haul for the Hoosiers with him as coach.
College Football Previews
Well, I didn’t embarass myself too badly last year with my team predictions, so I’ll do it again this year. Over the next couple days, I’ll be posting my preseason conference predictions and my top 25 (guess who won’t be atop mine).