Picks for the week
Another week, another chance to improve. Here are the NCAA picks, NFL picks will be posted tomorrow.
Army +9 over Air Force
UPSET OF THE WEEK: Syracuse +13.5 over Louisville
Virginia -2.5 over Miami
West Virginia -3.5 over Connecticut
Minnesota -6 over Northwestern
Michigan State -5.5 over Wisconsin
Mississippi -6 over Auburn
Arkansas +7 over Tulsa
Texas A&M over Colorado
Notre Dame -5.5 over Pittsburgh
Missouri -19.5 over Baylor
Arkansas State +24 over Alabama
Oregon +3 over California
Florida State +2 over Georgia Tech
Duke +8 over Wake Forest
Florida -5.5 over Georgia
Colorado State +14.5 over BYU
South Carolina -5.5 over Tennessee
Texas Tech +4 over Texas
Oklahoma -21 over Nebraska
BCS vs Playoff vs Dynamic (Flex) Scheduling
A couple friends and I were discussing college football last night (we have all the answers of course) and talking about how to decide a true national champion. I’m not against the BCS completely myself, but I see where it has a few flaws. I also think that a playoff system diminishes the regular season and thus I’m not in favor of anything more than a +1 format where 1 plays 4, 2 plays 3 and the winners square off for a title game.
However, last night, I came up with a better idea that would still give us just one title game 1 vs 2. It’s still a work in progress in my head, but I wanted to get the idea out there and get some feedback.
Part of the problem people have with the BCS is unbalanced scheduling. Penn State this year could get to the National title game having played a MUCH lighter schedule than Texas or Alabama. Many say Ohio State has benefitted from the weakness of the Big 10 the last 2 years. So, let’s play 2 out of conference games and 8 conference games (the 2 out of conference games allows a powder puff team and allows you to keep an out of conference rival). Then, we feed all the results into the computer and it comes up with match ups for your final two games. Now, you can’t have Penn State play Texas and USC, because that makes those teams schedule even tougher. But you would end up with, for example, Penn State vs Boston College and Kansas to close out the season. Texas, with their tough Big 12 schedule, pulls Washington State and Purdue. Those last two weeks could have some exciting matchups of teams that would normally never play. Think of all the possibilities of matchups. Penn State would either prove their ranking or fumble it away. So would all the other teams. It doesn’t have to be super difficult home/away wise. If you are in the top 10% of teams record wise, you get both at home, lower 10% and you get both away, middle 70% and you get one at home and one away. You can even break it down to upper 35% of that 70% get home in week 1 and lower 35% get second week at home or some variation of that so teams can have an idea which they will be 2-3 weeks out. And the computer could decide the matchups and then a human panel reviews them for logistically possibility and fairness (possibly the NCAA selection committee) and they matchups come out 2 weeks before they are to be played to give teams and fans time to prepare. Season still ends at the same time, same number of games for each team. Then you have a much more balanced schedule for the BCS computers to use to rank your #1 and #2, who play in January. And fans can’t argue as well that so-and-so got there because they played 4 cream puff out of conference games and played in a weak schedule. Hey, it’s a pipe dream, but a guy can dream, right?
Thoughts? Ideas?
Picks for the week
A down week last week, 4-8 in NCAA and 4-4 in NFL makes me 24-30 on the season in NCAA and 19-10 in the NFL.
So, I’m taking a little different strategy this week and trying not to overthink it. But I don’t do better in the Big 10 this week, no more Big 10 picks the rest of the season.
NCAA:
Army -2.5 over Louisiana Tech
Northwestern -8 over Indiana
Minnesota -1 over Purdue
North Carolina -2.5 over Boston College
Illinois -2.5 over Wisconsin
Pittsburgh -9.5 over Rutgers
Mississippi -5.5 over Arkansas
BYU -22 over UNLV
Vanderbilt -10 over Duke
Tennessee +6 over Alabama
Arizona St +4 over Oregon
UCLA -17.5 over California
GA Tech -12.5 over Virginia
Oklahoma State +13.5 over Texas
LSU -1.5 over Georgia
Michigan St -4 over Michigan
Texas Tech +1 over Kansas
Penn State and Ohio State over 44.5
Arizona +16.5 over USC
NFL:
Baltimore -7 over Oakland
Buffalo +2 over Miami
Dallas -2.5 over Tampa
Carolina -4.0 over Arizona
Atlanta +9 over Philadelphia
Jacksonville -7 over Cleveland
Pittsburgh -2.5 over NY Giants
San Francisco +5 over Seattle
Video
Love this video that I saw on one of my friends blog today, finally, a Nike commercial I actually like.
Picks for 10/18 and 19
After going 2-4 two weeks ago, I rebounded last week, going 6-0 in the NFL to improve my NFL season record to 15-6. 3-7 and 4-7 the last 2 weeks respectively hasn’t helped my NCAA record at all as I’ve dropped to 20-22 there.
NCAA:
Connecticut -1 over Rutgers
Wake Forest -1.5 over Maryland
Virginia Tech +3 over Boston College
Oklahoma -20 over Kansas
Nebraska -8.5 over Iowa State
Navy +2.5 over Pittsburgh
California -2.5 over Arizona
Texas -5 over Missouri
Baylor +17 over Oklahoma State
Colorado -3.5 over Kansas State
Air Force -4.0 over UNLV
Michigan St +3.5 over Ohio State
NFL:
Buffalo EVEN over San Diego
Pittsburgh -9.5 over Cincinnati
Chicago -3 over Minnesota
New Orleans +3 over Carolina
NY Jets -3 over Oakland
Indianapolis -1 over Green Bay
Tampa Bay -10.5 over Seattle
Denver +3 over New England
Picks for the week 10/11
Had a horrible week last week, gotta turn it around this week. Here are the weekly picks, again, in order of confidence.
Illinois -12.5 over Minnesota
East Carolina -6.5 over Virginia
Colorado +14 over Kansas
Arizona State +28.5 over Southern California
Vanderbilt -2 over Mississippi State
Baylor -3.5 over Iowa State
Texas Tech -20.5 over Nebraska
Georgia -13 over Tennessee
Arkansas +16.6 over Auburn
Northwestern +1.5 over Michigan State
Penn State -6 over Wisconsin
NFL
San Diego -5 over New England
Green Bay +1 over Seattle
Arizona +5.5 over Dallas
NY Jets -8.5 over Cincinnati
Indianapolis -4 over Baltimore
New Orleans -7 over Oakland
10 Years as Coach/QB Combination
I read an interesting article a couple weeks ago about how Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb are now entering their 10th season together. It’s the most seasons together of any active coach and QB in the NFL currently. Belichick and Brady are at 9 (if you can even count this season) and Manning/Dungy are at a distant 7 together.
What also shocked me, was how few times coaches and QB have even lasted 10 years together. I mean, I knew it wasn’t going to be a huge number, but still, I thought it’d be higher than what it is. Reid/McNabb are only the 8th combo to do it.
The others are:
Marv Levy/Jim Kelly, Bills, 1986-1996 (108-67, .617)
Paul Brown/Otto Graham, Browns, 1946-1955 (105-17-4, .849), includes four years in AAFC
Dan Reeves/John Elway, Broncos, 1983-1992 (98-60-1, .620)
Hank Stram/Len Dawson, Chiefs, 1962-1972 (98-48-8, .662)
Don Shula/Dan Marino, Dolphins, 1983-1995 (127-80, .614)
Don Shula/Bob Griese, Dolphins, 1970-1979 (104-39-1, .726)
Chuck Noll/Terry Bradshaw, Steelers, 1970-1982 (122-62-1, .662)
Andy Reid/Donovan McNabb, 1999-2008 (88-56, .611)
I would have never guessed the Hank Stram or Paul Brown ones. I think it’s interesting that Don Shula actually pulled it off with two separate QBs.
So, I guess congrats are in order for Reid and McNabb. You can read the full article here: http://www.delawareonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080907/SPORTS02/809070350/1002/SPORTS
NFL Picks for the week
Indianapolis +3.5 over Houston
San Diego -6.5 over Miami
Chicago -3.5 over Detroit
Buffalo +1.5 over Arizona
Jacksonville -4.0 over Pittsburgh
New Orleans -3 over Minnesota
Picks for the week 10/4
Last week: 7-4 in NCAA, 3-1 in NFL. On the season: NCAA 13-8, NFL, 7-2
Again, in order of confidence:
Boston College -8.5 over NC State
Mississippi -2.5 over South Carolina
Penn State -13.5 over Purdue
Michigan State -6.5 over Iowa
UNLV +2 over Colorado State
Illinois +2.5 over Michigan
Kansas -11.5 over Iowa State
Stanford +6.5 over Notre Dame
Air Force -5 over Navy
Southern Cal -16.5 over Oregon