SEC Preview
East
1. Florida – Obviously, you’ve heard it all already, Tim Tebow and the entire 2 deep on defense. This is a deep and extremely talented team. What scares me the most about Florida is not anyone on their schedule, it’s the hype. I’ve already heard several talking heads say “best team ever” and “no way they can lose” and they haven’t even played yet. We’ve heard that before about teams, and normally when the expectations are that high, it’s hard to meet them. We heard the same thing about USC in 2007 and that team lost 2 games, including a home loss to a Stanford team that finished the season 4-8. They have to keep their focus and play every game like it’s the National Championship, and that wears on a team throughout the season as every team give them their best shot. This is obviously the best team in the conference and the country, only time will tell if they can run the table.
2. Georgia - Under the radar this season a bit after being last season’s preseason #1, but this is still a very good team and the defense will be great if they can stay healthy, something they were unable to do last year. It’s tough whenever you lose players like Stafford and Moreno, but Florida is the only other team in the East with as much talent as them.
3. South Carolina – Earlier in the offseason, I would have had Tennessee slotted here, but I’ve heard reports of drastic improvement on SCar’s offensive and defensive lines and Tennessee has no healthy receivers left. They have just 58% of their lettermen returning and need to get better at protecting the ball.
4. Tennessee - Time to shut up and put up some points for Lane Kiffin. After the offseason circus that was Tennessee football, it will be interesting to see how the players repond come gameday and if he is able to recruit SEC caliber talent over the long run. Hopefully Kiffin won’t try too many 76 yeard field goals like he did in the NFL and keep the Vols in some games.
5. Vanderbilt - Could it be? Vandy out of the basement in the East for two straight years? They have 17 returning starters and just 15 letterman lost. They lose their QB Nickson and star CB DJ Moore, but this is still a very talented team and could find their way into a bowl game for a second straight year with just one or two upsets. They have a great front 7 on D and the offensive line is much more experienced and should be improved.
6. Kentucky - Don’t get me wrong, Rich Brooks has done a great job here. However, they have just 12 returning starters and the defense is rather inexperienced. It probably won’t be the worst defense in the league, but likely the worst in the East and winning in the SEC requires a stout defense. Unless they lose a lot of talent to the draft early, this will be a team to look out for next season.
West
1. Mississippi – I feel as if Ole Miss is overrated by some publications and websites, however, I still think they are the best of the West. All of their games fall into the winnable category, although, they will lose at least 2 to the toughness of the schedule. Still, 10-2 in the West should get them into the SEC title game where they may not like the result of their grudge match with Florida. I think Houston Nutt is a great coach and Arkansas should have never let him go. This year, I think he’ll prove to everyone why.
2. Alabama – After a 12-2 season last year and 9 returning starters on defense, I wonder if I’m not making a mistake by slotting Alabama here. Julio Jones aside, I have questions about the offense and their ability to win ballgames. However, it would surprise me if they win less that 10 games.
3. LSU – LSU has the toughest schedule of any team of the top 3 in the West and that’s why I have them here. They will again be of the the best teams in the SEC and will top last year’s 8 wins.
4. Arkansas – Bobby Petrino is still a couple years away from challenging the top teams the way Arkansas ways think the Razorback fans think they should every year. In fact, Razorback fans forget they are Arkansas fans and not LSU fans. This is a pretty good team, but not good enough to compete with the top 3 in the league.
5. Auburn – Gene Chizik? Really? You are Auburn and have your pick of any top assistant in the country or about 1/2 the head coaches in the country to chose from, and you pick Gene Chizik? He couldn’t even win in the Big 12, how is he going to win in the SEC? All it takes is one bad hire to set your program back 10 years and that’s exactly what Auburn did. Get used to the #4 or 5 spot in the West for the next couple year Auburn fans. They have a talented team, but the schedule is tough and a completely new coaching staff will be making a lot of changes on both sides of the ball. They could return to a bowl game, but I don’t expect better than a 6-6 or 7-5 regular season.
6. Mississippi St - Not much to write about here, when people say “There are no off weeks in the SEC” and boast about how every team in the SEC would be undefeated in a different, “easier” conference, they forget about Mississippi State. The Bulldogs couldn’t even win the Big East. Just 10 starters returning, new coaching staff switching from a run offense to a pass offense, it’s clearly a rebuilding year for the Bulldogs. I just haven’t figured out what they are rebuilding from yet.
Big 12 Preview
South
1. Texas – I’m still sick and tired of hearing every talking head, commentator, and announcer say that Texas was robbed last year because head-to-head results don’t matter in a 3-way tie. Anyone who can’t figure out that you can’t resolve a 3-way tie with head-to-head results should not have a job in broadcasting. That’s my opinion and I could go on for a while on this topic because Texas didn’t deserve to win the tie-breaker just because they won the head-to-head. Anyway, 16 returning starters, only 12 lettermen lost, return Colt McCoy and their top 5 tacklers. A talented, experienced team with lots to play for.
2. Oklahoma – Should be a great team again with the return of Sam Bradford and DeMarco Murray (if he can stay healthy), but Bradford won’t have nearly the caliber of receiver to throw to and the defense has some holes. This year, the winner of the Red River Shootout really will be in the Big 12 title game as I don’t foresee another 3-way tie. As a side note, I just had to include this picture below the South Preview of Sam Bradford that was in a Dallas Mavericks game program earlier this year. It cracks me up. I thought at first, what is Princess Leia doing holding that trophy? Then I realized that was just Sam posing with the O’Brien. Does he use the force during games? Is that why his completion percentage was so high last year? Too bad none of his receivers are named Luke, that would be too much.
3. Oklahoma State – I’m not buying all the hype that the Cowboys are getting. Sure, the offense can be explosive at times and the defense should be improved this year, but I’m not convinced they can do anything more than play the top teams int he conference closer. The schedule sets up nice for them as they avoid Nebraska and the Kansas teams out of the North and get Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Texas as home. Still, I’m not sure it makes a difference and still think they should be happen with 3rd in the conference.
4. Texas Tech – Mike Leech won’t be kept down for long, but it’s hard to slot them much higher than this with so little coming back on offense. They should put up numbers and have a decent year, but I don’t see them matching last years 11 wins, although, 8 should be expected.
5. Baylor – I wish the schedule set up a little nicer for the Bears because this is an improved team. 16 returning starters for the Bears including playmakers Robert Griffin and Jay Finley. The schedule is tough, although they should match or exceed last year’s 4 wins.
6. Texas A&M – Anyone who of a school looking for a coach who can’t make it in either college or the NFL? Because I’m guessing that Mike Sherman is going to be job hunting about 12 games from now. 10 starters back on offense and 6 back on defense and they will all need to step up their production considerably if they expect to finish out of the basement.
North
1. Nebraska – I believe in Bo Pelini. The defense should be great this year. While they lose a great QB in Joe Ganz and will not match last years offensive numbers, the offense should be good enough to win the North. Interesting stat I found in Phil Steele, since 2001, only 2 BCS schools haven’t beaten a team ranked in the top 19, Nebraska and Duke. Looking at the schedule this year, they could continue that streak and still win the North.
2. Colorado – I feel like it’s the 90′s all over again picking Nebraska and Colorado as the top 2 in the conference. If Dan Hawkins’ system is going to work in Colorado and keep him in his job next year, he needs to finish second in the North this year. He has the talent to do so and I like the guys he has returning and the schedule sets up nicely for them.
3. Kansas – Most people will be picking Kansas to win the North because of Reesing. And while he is the best QB on this side of the conference, I don’t think he can do it alone. Mangino just might make a fool of me and win the conference, but I just don’t see it happening. There are too many question marks at linebacker and offensive line for me.
4. Kansas State – Bill Snyder returns! That alone should be worth 1 win. The loss of Freeman hurts and the team will need to learn new schemes on offense and defense, but I think they will be improved from year’s past when they were barely competitive. The defense will be much improved and keep them in a lot of ball games, they will should whether or not they appear in a bowl games will be decided by a few plays that either go their way or don’t.
5. Missouri – Feels weird to pick Missouri so low after their recent success, but with only 9 returning starters, the loss of Daniel, Maclin, and … well, 7 other All-Big 12 defenders, it’s a rebuilding year in Columbia. I don’t even think they have enough to make it to a bowl this year and the Missouri fans will be left wondering what happened.
6. Iowa State – The easiest of all the Big 12 teams to predict. The tough thing is deciding whether they will win 0 or 1 conference games. My guess this year is 1. It’ll be another long year in Ames, but hey, at least they have that long, frigid Midwest winter to look forward to.
Pac-10 Preview
The Pac-10 is always one of the toughest conferences for me to pick. The winner is easy, USC, and second and third aren’t bad, but after that, it all gets blurry to me, especially since the Pac-10 is so bad out of conference that last couple years. So, hopefully, I can get a couple teams right this year in this conference.
1. USC - One of the most talented teams in the country again this year. They have 9 starters back on offense, but will be breaking in a new quarterback. They have just 3 back on defense. With the new QB and road games against Ohio State and the rest of my top conference teams, I call for them to be down a bit, but still among the top 10 teams in the country.
2. California – The 2nd most talented team in the conference and the only team that has been able to give USC a run for their money the last couple years. However, they always seem to trip up in a game or two and haven’t been able to be consistent thoughout the year. They return 15 starters (7 offense and 8 defense) including their QB, top 2 RBs, and top 2 WRs. I have my questions about the offense line and the amount of road games against some tough competition (Oregon, Arizona St, UCLA) and face two BCS schools out of conference. However, they should be able to get to double digit wins this season.
3. UCLA – I have UCLA here almost by default. I am somewhat proud of myself for not overvaluing UCLA when they had 20 returning starters and actually called that Dorrell would be fired at the end of that season. Neuheisel didn’t inherit much talent last year, but this year, the team is much more experienced and enjoyed a decent recuriting class. They have 16 returning starters. They will easily top last year’s 4 wins, but with Neuheisel as coach, I think the ceiling is 9 wins every year.
4. Arizona - If this team didn’t go from having a 4 year starter at QB to starting a QB with only 11 career pass attempts, I’d have Arizona ahead of UCLA. The defense should be very good and I look for good years out of Delashaun Dean and Terrell Turner at WR. However, I have my doubts about the offensive line, and whereas Grigsby is a serviceable RB, he may not be able to overcome bad line play. They should match or exceed last years 8 wins and make it to their second straight bowl game.
T-5. Oregon - This team scares me, I almost feel like they could be 6th or 7th actually. The coaching situation bewilders me (Bellotti stepping aside after a 10 win season prior to spring training) and I think the losses of Jeremiah Johnson and Terence Scott and returning only 4 of their top 10 OL hurts. They do have 5 conference home games, but start the season at Boise State, home against Purdue, Utah, then California. Only 9 returning starters and the new coaching staff have me convinced this is a bowl team, but not much more. I’m thinking 7-5 or 8-4.
T-5. Stanford – I know, call me crazy, but I like what Jim Harbaugh has done here and I think he is rewarded with with a bowl bid this year. He returns 9 on offense and 8 on defense. They play 7 teams who had bowl victories last year, but if Toby Gerhart and Tavita Pritchard can stay healthy, I think they can get to 7 wins.
7. Oregon State - Mike Riley is a great coach and has earned his keep so far, coming with a couple big victories every season. However, they return only 3 on defense, and just 4 of their top 13 tacklers. They should be able to keep up offensively with most teams, but I don’t see them matching last years 9 wins.
8. Arizona State – The more I look at this team, the more I’m just not thrilled with it. The recruiting class was not very good and they just seem to have lost starters in all the wrong places. Plus, it’s hard to lose a QB like Rudy Carpenter and improve. I predict them to finish 5-7 again.
9. Washington – With a new coaching staff, I normally call for teams to have a slightly down year. However, if you go winless the year before, 1-2 wins under the new regime is actually quite an improvement. The new coaches have 18 returning starters to work with, including Jake Locker. Overall, I think the team is much improved, but I don’t expect more than a couple wins.
10. Washington State - It was a long year last year for the Cougars, even though they had a whole 2 wins vs rival UW’s 0 wins, they became the first team in Pac 10 history to give up more than 500 points in a season and that was with 3 games left. They have 15 returning starters, lost 37 starts to injury and were -25 in turnovers, which all point to an improved season. However, I just don’t see more than 2 wins on the schedule again this year.
Big Ten Preview
1. Penn State – No surprise here as most people have them winning the conference. Even with a measly 9 returning starters, they still have the most talent in the conference again this year as Paterno continues to be able to recruit well. The secondary has some holes that concern me, but playing in the Big 10, you can have some holes in the secondary and be ok. They have to play Illinois, Michigan, and Michigan St on the road or I’d call for them to be undefeated. Regardless, if Clark and Royster stay healthy, the schedule sets them up to be a darkhorse national champion contender.
2. Ohio State – This pick is largely based on Terrelle Pryor. With the huge losses to the NFL draft this year (only 12 returning starters, 5 O, 7 D), normally I would be calling for them to have a down year. They do have good talent on both lines and that will make all the difference in tight games. They should finish the season with just 2 losses, but won’t blow out everything like they have in recent seasons.
T-3. Iowa – Last year, they were 9-4 and all 4 losses less than 7 points. They have to replace their best offensive weapon in Shonn Greene, but they have 99 starts returning on the offensive line so they should be able to open up some holes for whoever ends up with the starting RB spot. They return 8 on defense, including their top 4 tacklers. They get Wisconsin, Michigan State and Ohio State on the road, but should be able to match or top last years 9 wins.
T-3. Illinois – They return a lot of yeards on offense with Juice Williams returning to run an offense that has the top 6 rushers, QB, and 9 out of the top 10 receivers all returning. They will need to get better play out of the offensive line this year, and they lose their top 2 tacklers on defense and only return 5 starters on that side of the ball. Overall, this is a talented bunch and they should easily be back in the a bowl game this year.
5. Michigan State – Despite having the most returning starters yet under coach Dantonio and avoiding Ohio State on the schedule, I think last year proved that they still have a ways to go until they are back to the top of the Big 10 getting blown out by both Ohio State and Penn State. They were fortunate to be 6-2 in league play last year. They should be bowl bound again, but may have trouble scoring points now that Javon Ringer is gone.
6. Michigan – I love to see the Wolverines struggle, so you can imagine that I enjoyed last years 3-9 season. However, Rodriguez returns all 5 offensive lineman this year and they will be much more successful upfront in the second year of his system. He also now has QB’s that fit his system. They do have several holes on defense though and will likely be in several high scoring games. They should be back in a bowl this season.
7. Wisconsin – This team is not quite as experienced, not as talented as in years past and every year under Bret Bielma the Badgers have gotten progressive worse. The nonconference schedule is easy enough that they should match last years 7 win total, but I don’t expect them to top it.
8. Minnesota – Tons of returning talent here (17 starters), including their exposive QB Weber and WR Decker who can change a game in one play. They will also be playing their first season in their new stadium that is actually on campus. They were +12 in the turnover category last year though and got lucky in several ballgames to get to 7 wins.
9. Northwestern – Pat Fitzgerald has done a great job here as head coach and has shown improvement each year. However, this year’s team has some giant holes to fill on offense at QB, RB, and WR. They return a good bit of talent on D (8 starters, 6 of 7 top tackers), but will likely find it hard to score points this season. The non-conference schedule is a cakewalk though and they will just need 2 conference wins to make it to a bowl game again this year.
10. Purdue – For the last couple years, Purdue has continued to disappoint despite quality returning talent. Two year ago, they returned 18 starters, yet could only manage a 8-5 record. This year, they lose QB Painter, RB Sheets and their top two WRs and coach Joe Tiller, who has been the coach for the previous 12 seasons. There are just way too many question marks for me to think they can get past 5 or 6 wins this season.
11. Indiana – With Kellen Lewis getting kicked off the team in April, they lose their top offensive weapon, leaving coach Bill Lynch very little to work with. They do return 9 starters on defense, but that doesn’t mean they are a talented returning 9. I expect the offensive line to be improved and the defensive line to be one of the best in the conference, but I can’t see them topping 3-4 wins this season.
ACC Preview
Atlantic Division
1. Florida State – Despite a few holes on defense (they lose their top 3 tacklers and only return 5 starters), this should be an even better team than last years. The schedule is brutal playing BYU, Florida, and USF out of conference. 11 of the 12 teams on their schedule had winning records last year, so I’m only projecting them to finish 9-3, but I think that’s all it will take to win the Atlanta this year.
2. NC State – It’s Tom O’Brien’s magical 3rd year when good coaches make their move. Last year, they finished strong and were plagued with injuries all year. If they can stay healthy, they are a tough team and the front 7 on defense is the best in the Atlantic.
T-3. Clemson – The Tigers are a tough team to get a feel for this year. They have a lot of questions at WR and QB and I’m still not convinced that the O-line is any better than last year just because they have more experience. The defense will be good again though as Kevin Steele was a great hire and they will keep them in every game, but it could be another 8-4 season.
T-3. Boston College - At some point, you have to think that the coaching carousel will have it’s effect on the team. I think it would happen last year, so surely it will happen this year, right? However, they are very experienced with 14 returning starters, and only 16 lettermen lost. I think questions at QB keep them from matching the 9 wins from last year, but 8 is very much within grasp.
5. Wake Forest – It’s hard to pick against a Jim Grobe team when he keeps finding ways to win no matter what personnel he has on the field. They return 9 starters on offense, so they will be more proficient there, but lose their top 5 tacklers and only return 4 starters on defense. For a team that doesn’t do as well in shootouts, they may find themselves in a couple this season. I think they are bowl eligible, but won’t be able to match last years 8 wins.
6.Maryland – Last year, MD was a jeckyll and hyde team to say the least. This year, they have just 9 returning starters and only 56% of their lettermen returning. Both defensive line and offensive line have too many holes though for them to compete week in and week out.
Coastal Division
1. Virginia Tech – my pick to win not only the Coastal, but the ACC Championship game as well. This is a team that won 10 games last year with just 10 returning starters and a tough schedule. The schedule still isn’t easy (though they avoid Clemson and FSU from the Atlantic). The holes to run through on offense will be bigger for Tyrod Taylor and Darren Evans and the defense will be the best in the division once again. If they can get past Alabama in their opener, they could finish the season with 1 loss and be a national champion contender.
2. Georgia Tech – Get ready for your last year of success under Paul Johnson Yellow Jacket fans. After this year, the coaches will have seen your 5 plays enough times to have caught on to them and how to stop them. And once recruits figure out that they the NFL is not looking for players who only run the option, the talent will dry up too. For this year though, the talent and edge are still there and 18 returning starters will make them a formiddable opponent every week this season.
T- 3. North Carolina - Butch Davis has had several good recruiting classes now and has shown that he knows what to do with the talent he is bring in. The defense returns 9 starters and should be much better than last year when the defense continually let them down. I’m not sold on the offense or the offensive line or I’d have them ranked higher. They should easily win the Coastal division next season.
T- 3. Miami - Oh, how the mighty have fallen. However, Randy Shannon is doing a great job and is beginning to assemble quite a bit of talent. He has his most talented team yet and I feel that Jacoby Harris will have a breakout season at QB. However, the schedule includes Clemson and FSU from the Atlanta and USF and Oklahoma out of conference. Unfortunately, they will be underdogs in each of their first 4 games and could feasibly start 0-4. I just hope they let coach Shannon finish out the season if that happens and I think they will be pleased with the results. I’m projecting a return to the postseason for the U.
5. Virginia - Al Groh has just 36 returning lettermen and 11 returning starters (same as last year). This year though, they lost their top 5 tacklers, top 5 receivers, and RB. They get Sewell back at QB this year (sat out with academic problems last year), but I don’t see it being enough. Gregg Brandon is a great hire at OC, but he won’t have much to work with this year. So long Al Groh, thanks for the memories. Although I do with you’d left the cupboard a little more bare, I can’t stand UVA or their obnoxious fans.
6. Duke - Dear David Cutcliffe, I’m sorry that Mississippi and Tennesee never gave you the respect you deserve and thus you have been relegated to Duke. Congratulations on winning 4 games last year as that’s how many Roof won his entire tenure there. I see the improvement, I see your ability, but alas, it’s still Duke. Maybe if you painted the ball orange and put down some hardwood in the middle of the field, someone up there would care about what you are doing. I’ve heard that this is another “rebuidling” year, but can you have a rebuilding year if you haven’t had a winning season in 15 years? What are you rebuilding from? Anyway, two FCS teams on the schedule should provide a couple wins and I look for at least 1 ACC game along the way, other than that, it’s the basement again for the Blue Devils.
Big East Preview
Time once again for my college football conference previews. This year, we’ll start with the Big East because I’m still working out the details of my picks for the other conferences. This should be a fun season and I’m really looking forward to it. So, without further ado.
1. Rutgers – Not quite the best of the top teams, however I think the schedule sets up for them to make it out on top. They get the top 3 teams at home, and on top of that, Pitt on a short week, USF in November, and WVU the week after their Backyard Brawl.
2. Pittsburgh - I think they are the best defense in the conference and have the most returning starters of any team in the league.
3. USF - I’ve felt they were the best team in the conference the last 2 years, but they have dissappointed me each time so I can’t justify picking them above the 3 spot this year. I can easily seem them winning the conference if they play up to their ability every week.
4. Cincinnati – They year, the Bearcats were underrated most of the season, but finished the regular season an amazing 11-2 despite QB problems. This year, they return 9 starters on offense, but only 1 on defense. They should be much improved on offense this year and I think Brian Kelly is one of the best coaches in the league, so he will find a way to overcome the holes in the defense and salvage a decent season and a decent bowl bid.
5. West Virginia – Tough pick here as the defense will be tough and keep them in every game and they have a good QB, RB, and WR combo that are game changers. But they have no depth and 4 Big East road games I think do this team in. I predict their lowest Big East finish since 2001, but they should still be bowl eligible.
6. Connecticut – They have just 6 starters back on offense and 6 back on defense, and lose their best player on each side of the ball and will need to get better play out of the QB position if they hope be bowl eligible again this season. Randy Edsall has done a great job as coach here over the last 11 years but I think that this season ends without a bowl appearance.
7. Louisville – It feels odd picking Louisville so low, but it could be a tough season for the Cards. They are coming off their first losing season since 1997, so Steve Kragthorpe will be on one of a very hot seat this season (joining Al Groh). They are breaking in a new QB and have just 13 returning starters, so it will be an uphill battle in every game, not to mention 9 teams on the schedule that went to a bowl last year with 6 of those games on the road.
8. Syracuse – Dragging up the rear again this year, the Orange, who start the season with 3 straight Big Ten games since the Big Ten seeks out the weakest members of other conferences them and makes sure they get on their schedules. 1st year coach Doug Marrone didn’t go himself any favors hiring Rob Spence as his offensive coordinator and a defensive coordinator who is working at his 4th school in 4 years, so either he realyl likes a change of scenery every year, or he’s not that good. At least the offense will be dreadfully predictable with Spence at the helm. On their schedule, they should be able to beat Maine and Akron. Enjoy your two wins Syracuse fans.