Big Ten Preview
1. Penn State – No surprise here as most people have them winning the conference. Even with a measly 9 returning starters, they still have the most talent in the conference again this year as Paterno continues to be able to recruit well. The secondary has some holes that concern me, but playing in the Big 10, you can have some holes in the secondary and be ok. They have to play Illinois, Michigan, and Michigan St on the road or I’d call for them to be undefeated. Regardless, if Clark and Royster stay healthy, the schedule sets them up to be a darkhorse national champion contender.
2. Ohio State – This pick is largely based on Terrelle Pryor. With the huge losses to the NFL draft this year (only 12 returning starters, 5 O, 7 D), normally I would be calling for them to have a down year. They do have good talent on both lines and that will make all the difference in tight games. They should finish the season with just 2 losses, but won’t blow out everything like they have in recent seasons.
T-3. Iowa – Last year, they were 9-4 and all 4 losses less than 7 points. They have to replace their best offensive weapon in Shonn Greene, but they have 99 starts returning on the offensive line so they should be able to open up some holes for whoever ends up with the starting RB spot. They return 8 on defense, including their top 4 tacklers. They get Wisconsin, Michigan State and Ohio State on the road, but should be able to match or top last years 9 wins.
T-3. Illinois – They return a lot of yeards on offense with Juice Williams returning to run an offense that has the top 6 rushers, QB, and 9 out of the top 10 receivers all returning. They will need to get better play out of the offensive line this year, and they lose their top 2 tacklers on defense and only return 5 starters on that side of the ball. Overall, this is a talented bunch and they should easily be back in the a bowl game this year.
5. Michigan State – Despite having the most returning starters yet under coach Dantonio and avoiding Ohio State on the schedule, I think last year proved that they still have a ways to go until they are back to the top of the Big 10 getting blown out by both Ohio State and Penn State. They were fortunate to be 6-2 in league play last year. They should be bowl bound again, but may have trouble scoring points now that Javon Ringer is gone.
6. Michigan – I love to see the Wolverines struggle, so you can imagine that I enjoyed last years 3-9 season. However, Rodriguez returns all 5 offensive lineman this year and they will be much more successful upfront in the second year of his system. He also now has QB’s that fit his system. They do have several holes on defense though and will likely be in several high scoring games. They should be back in a bowl this season.
7. Wisconsin – This team is not quite as experienced, not as talented as in years past and every year under Bret Bielma the Badgers have gotten progressive worse. The nonconference schedule is easy enough that they should match last years 7 win total, but I don’t expect them to top it.
8. Minnesota – Tons of returning talent here (17 starters), including their exposive QB Weber and WR Decker who can change a game in one play. They will also be playing their first season in their new stadium that is actually on campus. They were +12 in the turnover category last year though and got lucky in several ballgames to get to 7 wins.
9. Northwestern – Pat Fitzgerald has done a great job here as head coach and has shown improvement each year. However, this year’s team has some giant holes to fill on offense at QB, RB, and WR. They return a good bit of talent on D (8 starters, 6 of 7 top tackers), but will likely find it hard to score points this season. The non-conference schedule is a cakewalk though and they will just need 2 conference wins to make it to a bowl game again this year.
10. Purdue – For the last couple years, Purdue has continued to disappoint despite quality returning talent. Two year ago, they returned 18 starters, yet could only manage a 8-5 record. This year, they lose QB Painter, RB Sheets and their top two WRs and coach Joe Tiller, who has been the coach for the previous 12 seasons. There are just way too many question marks for me to think they can get past 5 or 6 wins this season.
11. Indiana – With Kellen Lewis getting kicked off the team in April, they lose their top offensive weapon, leaving coach Bill Lynch very little to work with. They do return 9 starters on defense, but that doesn’t mean they are a talented returning 9. I expect the offensive line to be improved and the defensive line to be one of the best in the conference, but I can’t see them topping 3-4 wins this season.