Pac-10 Preview
The Pac-10 is always one of the toughest conferences for me to pick. The winner is easy, USC, and second and third aren’t bad, but after that, it all gets blurry to me, especially since the Pac-10 is so bad out of conference that last couple years. So, hopefully, I can get a couple teams right this year in this conference.
1. USC - One of the most talented teams in the country again this year. They have 9 starters back on offense, but will be breaking in a new quarterback. They have just 3 back on defense. With the new QB and road games against Ohio State and the rest of my top conference teams, I call for them to be down a bit, but still among the top 10 teams in the country.
2. California – The 2nd most talented team in the conference and the only team that has been able to give USC a run for their money the last couple years. However, they always seem to trip up in a game or two and haven’t been able to be consistent thoughout the year. They return 15 starters (7 offense and 8 defense) including their QB, top 2 RBs, and top 2 WRs. I have my questions about the offense line and the amount of road games against some tough competition (Oregon, Arizona St, UCLA) and face two BCS schools out of conference. However, they should be able to get to double digit wins this season.
3. UCLA – I have UCLA here almost by default. I am somewhat proud of myself for not overvaluing UCLA when they had 20 returning starters and actually called that Dorrell would be fired at the end of that season. Neuheisel didn’t inherit much talent last year, but this year, the team is much more experienced and enjoyed a decent recuriting class. They have 16 returning starters. They will easily top last year’s 4 wins, but with Neuheisel as coach, I think the ceiling is 9 wins every year.
4. Arizona - If this team didn’t go from having a 4 year starter at QB to starting a QB with only 11 career pass attempts, I’d have Arizona ahead of UCLA. The defense should be very good and I look for good years out of Delashaun Dean and Terrell Turner at WR. However, I have my doubts about the offensive line, and whereas Grigsby is a serviceable RB, he may not be able to overcome bad line play. They should match or exceed last years 8 wins and make it to their second straight bowl game.
T-5. Oregon - This team scares me, I almost feel like they could be 6th or 7th actually. The coaching situation bewilders me (Bellotti stepping aside after a 10 win season prior to spring training) and I think the losses of Jeremiah Johnson and Terence Scott and returning only 4 of their top 10 OL hurts. They do have 5 conference home games, but start the season at Boise State, home against Purdue, Utah, then California. Only 9 returning starters and the new coaching staff have me convinced this is a bowl team, but not much more. I’m thinking 7-5 or 8-4.
T-5. Stanford – I know, call me crazy, but I like what Jim Harbaugh has done here and I think he is rewarded with with a bowl bid this year. He returns 9 on offense and 8 on defense. They play 7 teams who had bowl victories last year, but if Toby Gerhart and Tavita Pritchard can stay healthy, I think they can get to 7 wins.
7. Oregon State - Mike Riley is a great coach and has earned his keep so far, coming with a couple big victories every season. However, they return only 3 on defense, and just 4 of their top 13 tacklers. They should be able to keep up offensively with most teams, but I don’t see them matching last years 9 wins.
8. Arizona State – The more I look at this team, the more I’m just not thrilled with it. The recruiting class was not very good and they just seem to have lost starters in all the wrong places. Plus, it’s hard to lose a QB like Rudy Carpenter and improve. I predict them to finish 5-7 again.
9. Washington – With a new coaching staff, I normally call for teams to have a slightly down year. However, if you go winless the year before, 1-2 wins under the new regime is actually quite an improvement. The new coaches have 18 returning starters to work with, including Jake Locker. Overall, I think the team is much improved, but I don’t expect more than a couple wins.
10. Washington State - It was a long year last year for the Cougars, even though they had a whole 2 wins vs rival UW’s 0 wins, they became the first team in Pac 10 history to give up more than 500 points in a season and that was with 3 games left. They have 15 returning starters, lost 37 starts to injury and were -25 in turnovers, which all point to an improved season. However, I just don’t see more than 2 wins on the schedule again this year.