NASCAR circa 2009 vs. CART circa 1994
I am about to make a bold prediction. NASCAR will split and a new series will form within 2 years. That is my opinion, I’ve not heard rumors of such or anything. I just know that many fans are starting to feel the same way as me based off of message boards and ESPN article comments.
The first and number one reason is none other than money. If you will recall, one of the reasons for the CART/IRL split was that the series was dominated by a handful of wealthy teams. Thus has become the case for NASCAR. The cost based barriers for entry into the series are tremendous, between testing, amount of cars and personnel needed, etc. Equipment and quality of team are just as important if not more important than the quality of driver on your team. Just as Chip Ganassi and Roger Penske’s cars were so much faster and superior that they could take any driver and make them win, the same goes now in NASCAR for Rick Hendrick and Jack Roush. The TV contract is giant and the cost to sponsor a car has grown to the extent that only the largest of corporations can afford to finance a car for the entire season. All eerily similar to the CART series in the mid-90′s. Also, it’s getting more and more expensive to attend a NASCAR race, and the typical NASCAR fan isn’t your upper middle class business executive with significant discretionary income. NASCAR needs to make it’s money off TV deals and licensing fees, and not suck every penny they can out of fans on race day.
The second reason is also very important and that’s the way that the championship is decided. The Chase for the Cup isn’t working. It was designed to try and keep interest in NASCAR after the NFL had started it’s season because people were running away with the championship. It’s not a bad idea entirely. However, it negates the regular season too much. It’s not like a traditional playoff system because the guy who was 10th in points with no shot of winning the championship, now has a pretty good chance. I know that there’s some separation based on the regular season, but there needs to be more. For example, in football, there’s opening week bye’s and home field advantage. You can win every race and dominate the season, but once the chase starts, you are still just 5 points ahead of second place. Also, the points are confusing, I’ll never understand how second and third place can sometimes earn more points than the winner of the race. In CART, there was debate over whether some of the races should be worth more points than others and how many positions should earn points, etc. Many were upset with how the championship was decided. In my opinion, they need to rotate the 10 tracks that are used. If I were a NASCAR driver, I would only test and practice at the Chase tracks. I’ve seen it calculated before, you only need to finish something like 10th place on average to get into the Chase. I’m not saying that’s easy, but aiming for 10th every week is certainly easier than winning every week until you need to. The timing of the races needs to change so they are not competing directly with the bulk of the NFL games, which kick off at 1:00 pm on Sunday. Run them Saturday night, Sunday night and maybe even Friday night if possible. But they can’t survive mono e mono with the NFL and win the TV rating war, not even with a sham Championship points system, so what’s the point? Besides, what’s wrong with the best driver winning the championship? I know, I know, the best team doesn’t always win the championship in other sports either, but I guess I don’t understand why we need 36 races if we aren’t going to give the championship to driver with the best season in the end.
Back in the mid-90′s, a major complaint against CART was all the regulations and lack of stock equipment. NASCAR is supposed to be stock car racing, however, need I remind you of the Car of Tomorrow. Which has reduced the variances in manufacture, increased the amount of standardization and regulations, and reduced the amount of stock equipment used in the car. There are more manufacturers than ever with the addition of Toyota, but less actually variety in cars. It was supposed to increase cost efficiencies for the teams, but if it did, why are only the richest, largest teams the most successful? I understand that for safety and competition reasons, the cars can now longer be suped up cars that you can buy off the street, but I think the fans would like to at least see some resemblence of them and some slight variety in body type.
Another problem with CART was the drivers. Most of the top open wheel drivers were foreign and the fans wanted more American drivers. As more top drivers are choosing NASCAR over other racing series, the amount of foreign drivers are not increasing, but more drivers are from areas outside the South. Though NASCAR has tried to leave its Southern roots and have a broader fan base, it’s roots are Southern and traditional. As it leaves those behind, some of its fans have been left behind too as they can’t identify with the newer drivers like they could with a Dale Earnhardt, Junior Johnson, Cale Yarborough, etc. Also, NASCAR has done a lot to limit fan exposure to drivers and has significantly reduced driver personality from the equation by placing stiff fines and point penalties for ‘bad behavior.’ Drivers can’t have a personality anymore or voice an opinion for fear they get docked points and made to look selfish and egotistical in the NASCAR controlled media outlets. That connection with the fans to the drivers that NASCAR has tried to eliminate, in my opinion, mirrors the disconnect that CART fans had with the foreign driver dominance at the time of the open wheel split.
One of the reasons that the IRL was successful was because it was backed by the owner of Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Therefore, CART lost its premier race, the Indy 500. Can NASCAR lose one of it’s premier races? If a startup or alternate series were to spin up, their key to success would be to steal a big race, such as Daytona, Talladega, or Charlotte from NASCAR. By involving one of those track owners in their ownership group, they may be able to. With more than one top billing race, NASCAR could probably afford to lose one, but as with CART/IRL, the fans would be split. The TV revenues would die down and sponsorship would dwindle trying to support two series. Ultimately, the open wheel market was not large enough to support two series, and stock car racing wouldn’t be either. Remember too, that when the IRL started out, it was much smaller and CART dominated for several more seasons until the IRL took over. A startup series wouldn’t challenge NASCAR in the beginning. But it could slowly chip away, stealing a driver here and there, then a major sponsor or two, then a major team (like when Chip Ganassi left CART for IRL in 2000) to slowly gain that momentum and turn the tables.
In the end, I feel like when/if there is a split, someday the two series will merge back into one like CART and IRL now have. But it will not come about without some bloodshed on each side. In due time, a split and the competition would help NASCAR. It will force them to re-evaluate their series and the way they do things and hopefully make the needed changes that will make them stronger in the end. I think that the CART/IRL split and now reunification as the IRL has helped open wheel racing. The fan base, TV ratings, etc are not what CART enjoyed at its height in the mid 90′s, however, had the IRL not happened and CART continued on as is, open wheel racing as we know it may not exist right now. Too many entertainment options, disconnect with the fans in an increasingly connected world, the NFL, the growth of NASCAR, etc, and open wheel racing would be in serious trouble in the 2000′s. But the IRL changed that, it lowered the barriers to entry and brought the series back to its true fans and brought about the changes that open wheel racing needed to survive in the 21st century. For NASCAR, a split may be the best thing that can happen and help stock car racing take that next step in moving up our sports world consciousness that NASCAR has been on the verge of, but unable to cross so far.