Bold Bowl Predictions – Part 2
For part 1, click here.
Picking bowl games is extremely hard to do. The reason is because you never really know for sure who wants it more. Sure, I attempt to make a good, eductated guess, but who really wants it, who prepared their hearts out and who used the bowl as a vacation, that’s hard to tell. You’d need to scour local papers of where the bowls are played at and local papers for each team to really know. Four to five weeks is a long time to prepare for a game, but the teams don’t always spend all that time preparing. This point really hit home with me in 2002 at the Tangerine Bowl in Orlando. I was there for the Clemson vs Texas Tech game. The game had been hyped up as featuring two great offenses and everyone expected over 100 combined points scored, but Clemson was touted as having the better defense and may get the one or two stops needed defensively to win the game. Shortly after landing, I was browsing through the Orlando paper and I knew that prediction would be wrong. There was an article on how the Clemson players were lounging around the pool and taking life easy in the Florida sun. Tommy Bowden was happy to have been in the game, didn’t care about winning bowl games and had given the players time off from practice to enjoy Orlando. Even took the team to DisneyWorld instead of practice one day. Texas Tech on the other had shut themselves into the hotel watching game tape and spent their time in the Florida sun on the football field. Final score: Texas Tech 55, Clemson 15.
There’s still time for you to get your picks in against me and see how well you know the teams at www.redshirtfootball.com/pickem. Enter the Bowl Challenge pool.
And now, the rest of the bowl picks.
Insight.com Bowl
Minnesota vs Iowa State
Why to watch: Interesting regional matchup (these schools are only 200 miles apart and thus should play more frequently), but lacks a national appeal. Keep your eye on Eric Decker for Minnesota. And after this clip, you can’t help but cheer for Iowa State. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oAcKiMy0Gp4
Why not to watch: Neither team is great. Iowa State is ranked 102nd in scoring and Minnesota is ranked 113th in total offense. Ouch. Can you say 10-7.
Who wants it more: Iowa State, who didn’t expect to even be in a bowl this year
Prediction: Iowa State by 3
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Chick-fil-a (Peach) Bowl
Virginia Tech vs Tennessee
Why to watch: Because this game historically is a lively game (though not always close) and a great way to kill some time before the ball drops and we kiss 2009 good-bye.
Why not to watch: If you like to see teams pass the ball, this one isn’t for you. And you have to watch Lane Kiffin and hear the announcers talk more about their cheating, I mean, recruiting.
Who wants it more: Tennessee – happy to return to a bowl
Prediction: Virginia Tech by 10, if they come motivated to play
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Outback Bowl
Northwestern vs Auburn
Why to watch: Both teams, when their offense is working, can put up points and have several big plays. Northwestern QB Mike Kafka is quietly one of the better QBs in the Big 10.
Why not to watch: Northwestern hasn’t won a bowl game since 1948.
Who wants it more: Northwestern
Prediction: Auburn by 7
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Capital One Bowl
Penn State vs LSU
Why to watch: A few bounces of the ball in a different direction or a few plays here and there and both of these teams would be a BCS game. Penn State’s defense is finally fully healthy and Evan Royster and Daryll Clark keep the offense humming.
Why not to watch: Both teams expected more from their seasons and either could mail it in and not play to win.
Who wants it more: The Big 10. Losing this game would be a huge hit status wide as they can ill afford another bad loss to the SEC.
Prediction: Penn State by 10
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Konica Minolta Gator Bowl
Florida State vs West Virginia
Why to watch: It’s Bobby Bowden’s last game. FSU has not played well this year, but given the retirement of the legend they all signed up to play for, the team could play out of their minds.
Why not to watch: WVU is sneaky good and FSU doesn’t have a defense. If this were a regular season game and not a bowl game and Bowden’s last game, WVU wins by 30. Could be an embarassing ending to a great career for Bobby.
Who wants it more: 3-4 ACC teams who deserved to be here more than FSU. But seriously, Florida State who wants to send Bobby out a winner
Prediction: West Virginia by 14, but only because they call off the dogs after halftime and have mercy on the legend.
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Rose Bowl presented by Citi
Ohio State vs Oregon
Why to watch: I love to watch the Oregon offense when it’s working. Jeremiah Masoli and LaMichael James have had amazing seasons and if you haven’t had a chance to see them play, don’t miss this game. Ohio State would love to get a win over a good Pac-10 team and have Terrelle Pryor have a breakout game to launch the 2010 Pryor for Heisman campaign.
Why not to watch: Sorry Dr Rob, but this is a bad matchup for Ohio State. I’m not sure they have the offense to keep up with the Ducks and Masoli is a master at reading whatever the defense gives him and making adjustments during the play.
Who wants it more: Ohio State, and they need it more too
Prediction: Oregon by 17, Masoli is too good and the Inside Zone Read of 3 Technique DT they run will be too much for OSU. See the following link for what I mean by that play. http://www.trojanfootballanalysis.com/wp/wordpress/?p=1572
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Allstate Sugar Bowl
Florida vs Cincinnati
Why to watch: Tim Tebow. One of the greatest college football players ever even though he doesn’t have a shot at another national championship. A win by Cincinnati would be HUGE statement for the Big East, even more so than Utah’s win over Alabama last year.
Why not to watch: UC gives up a ton of yards on defense and may not be able to score in bunches on Florida’s defense. Cincy players seem miffed at Brian Kelly ditching them for Notre Dame and may not give the game their full effort.
Who wants it more: Tim Tebow
Prediction: Florida by 7
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AutoZone Liberty Bowl
East Carolina vs Arkansas
Why to watch: Ryan Mallett should light up the ECU defense much like Case Keenum did in the Conference USA championship game and East Carolina keeps finding ways to stay in ballgames and pull out a win. ECU may have just enough offense to give Conference USA its first win over the SEC in the Liberty Bowl.
Why not to watch: East Carolina is 110th in pass defense. Take the over on passing yards for Mallett. It’s the Conference USA vs the SEC.
Who wants it more: Arkansas who wants to make a statement for the 2010 season
Prediction: Arkansas by 21
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International Bowl
South Florida vs Northern Illinois
Why to watch: NIU coach Jerry Kill does not get nearly enough credit for the job he as done with the Huskies program. Both teams like to run the ball and combine to average 371 yards per game. Could be the best International Bowl yet.
Why not to watch: If USF plays at it’s peak level, their defense is too fast and talented for NIU and they can pull away. But USF have lost 5 of it’s last 7 games (their normal end of the season swoon) and may not be up for this game.
Who wants it more: Northern Illinois (You don’t really think South Florida players are looking forward to playing in Toronto in January do you?)
Prediction: Northern Illinois by 3
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AT&T Cotton Bowl
Oklahoma State vs Ole Miss
Why to watch: This matchup was a very popular preseason prediction for a BCS game and each team had several let downs throughout the season. If both teams play up to their expectations, this would be a great game.
Why not to watch: Because of the first sentence on why to watch, both teams wanted and expected more out of this season and it will likely show in their play, leading to a sloppy, badly played game. If one team mails it in and the other doesn’t, it’ll be a blowout.
Who wants it more: Neither, really. And I’m not close enough to either program to tell.
Prediction: Ole Miss by 3
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Papajohns.com Bowl
Connecticut vs South Carolina
Why to watch: No team played with more heart this year than Connecticut after the death of Jasper Howard. They lost 5 games by less than 4 points, but rallied to beat Notre Dame win their last 3 games instead of falling apart.
Why not to watch: South Carolina lost 4 of their last 5 games before their win over Clemson, the only game all season in which they played with heart. Their defense is pretty good, but their offense can go through long stretches of boring and uneventful. In the last 3 seasons, the Gamecocks at 4-13 after October 15th.
Who wants it more: Connecticut
Prediction: Connecticut by 4
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Valero Alamo Bowl
Michigan State vs Texas Tech
Why to watch: Lately, the Alamo bowl has produced some good matchups and the games are decided by a touchdown or less. Offensively, both of these teams lead their conferences in passing yards per game.
Why not to watch: Texas Tech is coming in hot including a drumming of Oklahoma and always comes prepared for a bowl game. Michigan State is limping in to the game with their only wins in their final 5 games coming over Western Michigan and Purdue and haven’t won a bowl game since 2001
Who wants it more: Texas Tech
Prediction: Texas Tech by 21
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Tostitos Fiesta Bowl
TCU vs Boise State
Why to watch: Boise State returns to the site of their amazing win over Oklahoma a couple years ago, both teams are undefeated and have some amazing players on their teams. Boise State has the nation’s #1 offense and TCU has the nation’s #1 defense. This will be an entertaining game to watch.
Why not to watch: Because part of the fun of the BCS is seeing teams non-BCS teams play against BCS teams, ala Utah-Alabama, Boise State-Oklahoma, Hawaii-Georgia. I’d much rather see one of these teams play Florida and the other play Cincinnati.
Who wants it more: Both teams really want this win
Prediction: TCU by 3 (Defense wins championships, remember)
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FedEx Orange Bowl
Georgia Tech vs Iowa
Why to watch: Don’t miss this game if you want to see the option run to perfection and miss the 1995 Nebraska team. Paul Johnson and the Jackets run it 50-60 times a game. Iowa plays assignment defense and has a great front 7 that will have over a month to prepare to stop them.
Why not to watch: Both teams have played poorly at times throughout the season, and have won some close games in the end. Either GT has the offensive power to put Iowa away early or Iowa has the defensive power to shut down the option and therefore shut down the Jackets and this game turns into a blowout
Who wants it more: Georgia Tech, but just barely. I say that because Iowa has lost it’s last 4 major bowls.
Prediction: Georgia Tech by 17
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GMAC Bowl
Central Michigan vs Troy
Why to watch: Levi Brown (QB, Troy) vs Dan LeFevour (QB, CMU). This game will feature great QB play and two good offenses squaring off in an exciting game that should feature plenty of scoring. LeFevour will get a chance at playing on Sundays.
Why not to watch: The last couple years, the GMAC bowl has been a blowout when one team just completely didn’t come to play. The good news is that both of these teams have a recent history of showing up for bowl games.
Who wants it more: Possibly Central Michigan, who will be glad to be playing in a bowl other than the Motor City bowl for a change, although Troy is the team who is closer to home and will have a fan friendly advantage.
Prediction: Central Michigan by 4
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BCS National Championship Game
Texas vs Alabama
Why to watch: Because this is why they play the games all season, and what a better way to decide the National Championship that between two undefeated, historical powerhouses. This has the potential to be the best National Championship game since the 2006 USC-Texas game.
Why not to watch: Because if Alabama plays the way it did against Florida and Texas plays the way it did against Nebraska, the game will be a blowout in the Tide’s favor. But the Alabama that played against Florida didn’t play that way most of the season, and Texas didn’t struggle that much offensively all season.
Who wants it more: Texas, who feels that they should have been in the game last year. Alabama was playing for the Florida game all year and that’s alredy in the books.
Prediction: Alabama by 7