Super Bowl Preview
Well, my playoff picks were beyond subpar this year. Not sure how I missed that so badly, and how we had so few good games. Anyway, without further ado, my annual Super Bowl preview.
Offense and Quarterbacks:
We have an amazing matchup of quarterbacks this year. Both quarterbacks have the ability to read defenses and make adjustments well enough that we should have plenty of offense to watch.
As far as key players on offense go, I have to give the Saints the edge. Not that the Colts don’t have manageable receivers (Peyton Manning can make anyone look good), but I give the Saints an edge on their explosiveness. They have the ability to go all the way on any reception and open field tackling by the Colts defense will be key in keeping them in check. I also feel like the Saints running backs fit better into their offensive game plan than the Colts do as Addai is more of a power back stuck in a spread offense and they lack that Pierre Thomas/Reggie Bush receiving threat out of the backfield.
From a pure quarterback standpoint though, I give the edge to Peyton over Drew because of his experience. The quarterback position is so important in the Super Bowl and should be weighted accordingly. I give the Colts the overall offensive edge.
Defense and Turnovers:
Both defenses face a huge challenge this week, especially the Colts who will be without Dwight Freeney. Dwight is a big loss and he could pressure Drew and hopefully force him to make a mistake or two. But it could be worse, they could have had losses in their secondary. Net-net, the defenses are about a wash. I have been able to find a few stats though that indicate an edge for the Saints. First of all, the Colts are ranked 30th in the league stopping opponents on 3rd or 4th down and 31st in forcing 3 and outs. This will give the Saints offense more opportunities and possibilities for big plays. Also, that could raise the time of possession for the Saints and lead to a more tired Colts defense that might make mistakes late in the game. The other things is turnovers. A turnover at the right time will change the course of the game. Just ask the Cardinals last year. The Saints are 2nd overall in forcing turnovers and the Colts are 18th. Based on those two stats, I’ll give the edge to the Saints.
Coaches:
Jim Caldwell and Sean Payton. Payton has more NFL experience and comes from the Bill Parcells/Ray Rhodes coaching tree. Caldwell was a mediocre college coach until he came under the Dungy tree in the NFL. Caldwell is also in his first season as a head coach. I prefer Payton here as a pure coach, but Caldwell has a coach on the field in Manning. Still I give the edge to the Saints here.
Game Conditions:
Both teams play their home games in a dome, so if weather is a factor, then it will be for both teams. They are also both passing offenses and can be affected by the possible rainy forecast in the same manner, although I’d rather have Donald Brown and Joseph Addai in the rain than Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas.
The Super Bowl is different too because the game is slower (longer commercial breaks and more game stoppages) and without the experience of managing a slower game, offenses can get out of sync from all the delays. Since Indianapolis has been here recently, they may handle it better.
Other Factors:
Another factor that could come into play is the “happy to be here” symptom. The Saints have never been to a Super Bowl. That could play out in one of two ways. It could be a motivating factor to finish the job and increase their level of play. Or, they could be contempt that they’ve reached their goal and not play up the challenge. We’ve all seen it play out either way. I don’t see the Saints being contempt but they could get caught up in the whole playing for the entire city of New Orleans pressure and trying to hard to win that it hampers their play. The whole Hurricane Katrina, we need to win for this city, card could be too much for them to carry. The Colts want to win a Super Bowl, but the entire city of Indianapolis isn’t at stake, their minds are not going to be as heavy and most of the players have been there before so they will play more relaxed and handle the pressure of the game better. Advantage Colts.
Overall Prediction:
Halftime Score – 14-17 Saints
Final score – 35-31 Colts
Mark McGwire
Couple comments on some of Mark’s statements in his Interview with Bob Costas yesterday.
Mark: : …”I believe I was given this gift. The only reason I took steroids was for my health purposes. I did not take steroids to get any gain for any strength purposes.”
Ok, but you did gain strength from them. It might not have been much, but it might have been the difference between hitting a line drive 395 feet vs hitting it 415 feet. That could be the difference between a ball getting caught on the warning track for an out and sailing into the first row of bleachers.
Mark: “…There is not a pill or an injection that is going to give me the hand-eye – or give any athlete – the hand-eye coordination to hit a baseball. A pill or an injection will not hit a baseball.”
No one is disputing that. What we are saying is that steroids allow you to hit the ball further, turns outs into home runs. It allows you to play more and longer than you normally would have. They are called performance enhancing drugs, not performance creating drugs.
Mark: “It was the era that we played in. I wish I never played in that era. I wish we had drug testing. If we had testing when I was playing, you and I wouldn’t be having this conversation today. I guarantee you that.”
You mean you wish that you that the intestinal fortitude to say no to drugs. If we’d had testing, that conversation wouldn’t have happened because you wouldn’t have hit nearly 600 HRs and broken Maris’ record and no one would know who you were. People would remember you as the guy in Oakland who cheated if we had testing. Locks only keep the honest people honest. Testing only keeps honest players honest. You telling me that you would have been honest had we been testing for steroids? What have you done to prove that to me? Lied with asked about it during the single season HR race and lied about it under oath.
This statement is what bothers me the most, “I wish I’d never played in the steroid era.” That is not “I’m sorry I did it,” that’s “I’m sorry I played when I did.” Big difference. He’s trying to defer the blame to the time when he played, and indicate that it’s not his fault. But it is his fault, he still could have played during this era and not taken steroids.
Mark: “I took very very low dosages because I wanted my body to feel normal. The wear and tear of 162 ballgames and the status of where I was at and the pressures that I had to perform and what I had to go through to get through all these injuries is a very very regrettable thing. I wish it never came into my life. But we’re sitting here talking about it. I wish I didn’t have to.”
That’s still cheating and wear and tear of the game is part of the game. You are still taking something to try and be above the game.
Whats absurd is that Mark thinks that he could have broken the single season record and hit nearly 600 HRs without steroids. Well, Mark might have had a lot of HRs, but he couldn’t have broken those records being injured every season. But even if the drug only gives you 10-15 ft on the end of every line drive distance wise, it kept him healthy. How many extra games, or even seasons, did he get to play that he might not have had he not taken steroids. Injury is part of the game. Think about Ken Griffey. If Griffey takes drugs and stays healthy, he sets the career home run record easily. And he’s a far better defender and steals tons of bases. We might be talking about him as one of the best players ever if there was a drug that could have kept him healthy and he took it.
From baseball-reference.com, his pre-steroids batting average was .249, slugging percentage is .510 and he had 238 HRs at age 30 in 8 years as a pro. After steroids, he was hitting .278, slugging percentage of .677, and 345 HRs in 7 years. So in less years, he hit 107 more HRs and he was older. And he still thinks steroids had nothing to do with that.
I hope he never gets in the Hall of Fame, but Pete Rose does. Pete Rose may have bet on baseball, but he didn’t prolong his career or boost his numbers by taking performance enhancing drugs.
NFL Playoff Picks
Every year I try to go undefeated with my playoff picks (straight up, not against the spread) and the closest I’ve been is within 1 game. Here are my picks for this year:
Wild Card Round
NY Jets at Cincinnati Bengals – Bengals
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots – Patriots
GB Packers at Arizona Cardinals – Packers
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys – Cowboys
Divisional Round
Cincinnati Bengals at Indy Colts – Colts
NE Patriots at SD Chargers – Chargers
Cowboys at Vikings - Vikings
Packers at Saints – Packers
Conference Championship
Packers at Vikings – Packers
Chargers at Colts – Colts
Super Bowl
Colts vs Packers – Colts
The Thursday prior to the Super Bowl, I’ll post my lengthy, detailed Super Bowl preview.
Bowl Pick Change
With all the Urban Meyer developments, I would like revise my Sugar Bowl pick. I initially picked Florida to win by 7. I still think that they will win, but 7 wouldn’t cover the spread. With the Urban Meyer drama, I now think they will easily cover the spread and win by more like 21.
Bold Bowl Predictions – Part 2
For part 1, click here.
Picking bowl games is extremely hard to do. The reason is because you never really know for sure who wants it more. Sure, I attempt to make a good, eductated guess, but who really wants it, who prepared their hearts out and who used the bowl as a vacation, that’s hard to tell. You’d need to scour local papers of where the bowls are played at and local papers for each team to really know. Four to five weeks is a long time to prepare for a game, but the teams don’t always spend all that time preparing. This point really hit home with me in 2002 at the Tangerine Bowl in Orlando. I was there for the Clemson vs Texas Tech game. The game had been hyped up as featuring two great offenses and everyone expected over 100 combined points scored, but Clemson was touted as having the better defense and may get the one or two stops needed defensively to win the game. Shortly after landing, I was browsing through the Orlando paper and I knew that prediction would be wrong. There was an article on how the Clemson players were lounging around the pool and taking life easy in the Florida sun. Tommy Bowden was happy to have been in the game, didn’t care about winning bowl games and had given the players time off from practice to enjoy Orlando. Even took the team to DisneyWorld instead of practice one day. Texas Tech on the other had shut themselves into the hotel watching game tape and spent their time in the Florida sun on the football field. Final score: Texas Tech 55, Clemson 15.
There’s still time for you to get your picks in against me and see how well you know the teams at www.redshirtfootball.com/pickem. Enter the Bowl Challenge pool.
And now, the rest of the bowl picks.
Insight.com Bowl
Minnesota vs Iowa State
Why to watch: Interesting regional matchup (these schools are only 200 miles apart and thus should play more frequently), but lacks a national appeal. Keep your eye on Eric Decker for Minnesota. And after this clip, you can’t help but cheer for Iowa State. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oAcKiMy0Gp4
Why not to watch: Neither team is great. Iowa State is ranked 102nd in scoring and Minnesota is ranked 113th in total offense. Ouch. Can you say 10-7.
Who wants it more: Iowa State, who didn’t expect to even be in a bowl this year
Prediction: Iowa State by 3
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Chick-fil-a (Peach) Bowl
Virginia Tech vs Tennessee
Why to watch: Because this game historically is a lively game (though not always close) and a great way to kill some time before the ball drops and we kiss 2009 good-bye.
Why not to watch: If you like to see teams pass the ball, this one isn’t for you. And you have to watch Lane Kiffin and hear the announcers talk more about their cheating, I mean, recruiting.
Who wants it more: Tennessee – happy to return to a bowl
Prediction: Virginia Tech by 10, if they come motivated to play
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Outback Bowl
Northwestern vs Auburn
Why to watch: Both teams, when their offense is working, can put up points and have several big plays. Northwestern QB Mike Kafka is quietly one of the better QBs in the Big 10.
Why not to watch: Northwestern hasn’t won a bowl game since 1948.
Who wants it more: Northwestern
Prediction: Auburn by 7
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Capital One Bowl
Penn State vs LSU
Why to watch: A few bounces of the ball in a different direction or a few plays here and there and both of these teams would be a BCS game. Penn State’s defense is finally fully healthy and Evan Royster and Daryll Clark keep the offense humming.
Why not to watch: Both teams expected more from their seasons and either could mail it in and not play to win.
Who wants it more: The Big 10. Losing this game would be a huge hit status wide as they can ill afford another bad loss to the SEC.
Prediction: Penn State by 10
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Konica Minolta Gator Bowl
Florida State vs West Virginia
Why to watch: It’s Bobby Bowden’s last game. FSU has not played well this year, but given the retirement of the legend they all signed up to play for, the team could play out of their minds.
Why not to watch: WVU is sneaky good and FSU doesn’t have a defense. If this were a regular season game and not a bowl game and Bowden’s last game, WVU wins by 30. Could be an embarassing ending to a great career for Bobby.
Who wants it more: 3-4 ACC teams who deserved to be here more than FSU. But seriously, Florida State who wants to send Bobby out a winner
Prediction: West Virginia by 14, but only because they call off the dogs after halftime and have mercy on the legend.
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Rose Bowl presented by Citi
Ohio State vs Oregon
Why to watch: I love to watch the Oregon offense when it’s working. Jeremiah Masoli and LaMichael James have had amazing seasons and if you haven’t had a chance to see them play, don’t miss this game. Ohio State would love to get a win over a good Pac-10 team and have Terrelle Pryor have a breakout game to launch the 2010 Pryor for Heisman campaign.
Why not to watch: Sorry Dr Rob, but this is a bad matchup for Ohio State. I’m not sure they have the offense to keep up with the Ducks and Masoli is a master at reading whatever the defense gives him and making adjustments during the play.
Who wants it more: Ohio State, and they need it more too
Prediction: Oregon by 17, Masoli is too good and the Inside Zone Read of 3 Technique DT they run will be too much for OSU. See the following link for what I mean by that play. http://www.trojanfootballanalysis.com/wp/wordpress/?p=1572
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Allstate Sugar Bowl
Florida vs Cincinnati
Why to watch: Tim Tebow. One of the greatest college football players ever even though he doesn’t have a shot at another national championship. A win by Cincinnati would be HUGE statement for the Big East, even more so than Utah’s win over Alabama last year.
Why not to watch: UC gives up a ton of yards on defense and may not be able to score in bunches on Florida’s defense. Cincy players seem miffed at Brian Kelly ditching them for Notre Dame and may not give the game their full effort.
Who wants it more: Tim Tebow
Prediction: Florida by 7
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AutoZone Liberty Bowl
East Carolina vs Arkansas
Why to watch: Ryan Mallett should light up the ECU defense much like Case Keenum did in the Conference USA championship game and East Carolina keeps finding ways to stay in ballgames and pull out a win. ECU may have just enough offense to give Conference USA its first win over the SEC in the Liberty Bowl.
Why not to watch: East Carolina is 110th in pass defense. Take the over on passing yards for Mallett. It’s the Conference USA vs the SEC.
Who wants it more: Arkansas who wants to make a statement for the 2010 season
Prediction: Arkansas by 21
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International Bowl
South Florida vs Northern Illinois
Why to watch: NIU coach Jerry Kill does not get nearly enough credit for the job he as done with the Huskies program. Both teams like to run the ball and combine to average 371 yards per game. Could be the best International Bowl yet.
Why not to watch: If USF plays at it’s peak level, their defense is too fast and talented for NIU and they can pull away. But USF have lost 5 of it’s last 7 games (their normal end of the season swoon) and may not be up for this game.
Who wants it more: Northern Illinois (You don’t really think South Florida players are looking forward to playing in Toronto in January do you?)
Prediction: Northern Illinois by 3
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AT&T Cotton Bowl
Oklahoma State vs Ole Miss
Why to watch: This matchup was a very popular preseason prediction for a BCS game and each team had several let downs throughout the season. If both teams play up to their expectations, this would be a great game.
Why not to watch: Because of the first sentence on why to watch, both teams wanted and expected more out of this season and it will likely show in their play, leading to a sloppy, badly played game. If one team mails it in and the other doesn’t, it’ll be a blowout.
Who wants it more: Neither, really. And I’m not close enough to either program to tell.
Prediction: Ole Miss by 3
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Papajohns.com Bowl
Connecticut vs South Carolina
Why to watch: No team played with more heart this year than Connecticut after the death of Jasper Howard. They lost 5 games by less than 4 points, but rallied to beat Notre Dame win their last 3 games instead of falling apart.
Why not to watch: South Carolina lost 4 of their last 5 games before their win over Clemson, the only game all season in which they played with heart. Their defense is pretty good, but their offense can go through long stretches of boring and uneventful. In the last 3 seasons, the Gamecocks at 4-13 after October 15th.
Who wants it more: Connecticut
Prediction: Connecticut by 4
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Valero Alamo Bowl
Michigan State vs Texas Tech
Why to watch: Lately, the Alamo bowl has produced some good matchups and the games are decided by a touchdown or less. Offensively, both of these teams lead their conferences in passing yards per game.
Why not to watch: Texas Tech is coming in hot including a drumming of Oklahoma and always comes prepared for a bowl game. Michigan State is limping in to the game with their only wins in their final 5 games coming over Western Michigan and Purdue and haven’t won a bowl game since 2001
Who wants it more: Texas Tech
Prediction: Texas Tech by 21
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Tostitos Fiesta Bowl
TCU vs Boise State
Why to watch: Boise State returns to the site of their amazing win over Oklahoma a couple years ago, both teams are undefeated and have some amazing players on their teams. Boise State has the nation’s #1 offense and TCU has the nation’s #1 defense. This will be an entertaining game to watch.
Why not to watch: Because part of the fun of the BCS is seeing teams non-BCS teams play against BCS teams, ala Utah-Alabama, Boise State-Oklahoma, Hawaii-Georgia. I’d much rather see one of these teams play Florida and the other play Cincinnati.
Who wants it more: Both teams really want this win
Prediction: TCU by 3 (Defense wins championships, remember)
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FedEx Orange Bowl
Georgia Tech vs Iowa
Why to watch: Don’t miss this game if you want to see the option run to perfection and miss the 1995 Nebraska team. Paul Johnson and the Jackets run it 50-60 times a game. Iowa plays assignment defense and has a great front 7 that will have over a month to prepare to stop them.
Why not to watch: Both teams have played poorly at times throughout the season, and have won some close games in the end. Either GT has the offensive power to put Iowa away early or Iowa has the defensive power to shut down the option and therefore shut down the Jackets and this game turns into a blowout
Who wants it more: Georgia Tech, but just barely. I say that because Iowa has lost it’s last 4 major bowls.
Prediction: Georgia Tech by 17
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GMAC Bowl
Central Michigan vs Troy
Why to watch: Levi Brown (QB, Troy) vs Dan LeFevour (QB, CMU). This game will feature great QB play and two good offenses squaring off in an exciting game that should feature plenty of scoring. LeFevour will get a chance at playing on Sundays.
Why not to watch: The last couple years, the GMAC bowl has been a blowout when one team just completely didn’t come to play. The good news is that both of these teams have a recent history of showing up for bowl games.
Who wants it more: Possibly Central Michigan, who will be glad to be playing in a bowl other than the Motor City bowl for a change, although Troy is the team who is closer to home and will have a fan friendly advantage.
Prediction: Central Michigan by 4
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BCS National Championship Game
Texas vs Alabama
Why to watch: Because this is why they play the games all season, and what a better way to decide the National Championship that between two undefeated, historical powerhouses. This has the potential to be the best National Championship game since the 2006 USC-Texas game.
Why not to watch: Because if Alabama plays the way it did against Florida and Texas plays the way it did against Nebraska, the game will be a blowout in the Tide’s favor. But the Alabama that played against Florida didn’t play that way most of the season, and Texas didn’t struggle that much offensively all season.
Who wants it more: Texas, who feels that they should have been in the game last year. Alabama was playing for the Florida game all year and that’s alredy in the books.
Prediction: Alabama by 7
Bold Bowl Predictions – Part 1
I will now attempt to boldy predict the results of every bowl game (over the course of two posts). If you think I’m wrong, you can pick against me in my bowl challenge at http://www.redshirtfootball.com/pickem. You have until tomorrow at 6:30 pm to get your picks in because it doesn’t include the New Mexico Bowl since we all know Fresno is going to roll in that one.
New Mexico Bowl
Fresno State vs Wyoming
Why to watch: Ryan Matthews has rushed for 151 yards per game and only trails Toby Gerhart in rushing yards this season. Wyoming’s first bowl appearance since 2004
Why not to watch: Wyoming’s offense is ranked 112th in the country.
Who wants it more: Fresno State
Prediction: Fresno State by 17.
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St Petersburg Bowl by Beef O’Bradys
Rutgers vs UCF
Why to watch: UCF’s defensive play. The Knights are great against the run and are aggressive up front.
Why not to watch: Because it’s Rutgers vs Central Florida. Central Florida has been blown out by the two BCS schools its played and Rutgers has been inconsistent this season.
Who wants it more: UCF. Rutgers had their preseason eyes on something better, forgetting that they were Rutgers.
Prediction: Rutgers by 3 in a low scoring, sloppy game
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R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Southern Miss vs. Middle Tennessee
Why to watch: Dwight Dasher, MTSU’s QB who is very talented and fun to watch. Besides, it’s near Christmas, very fitting to watch a guy named Dasher.
Why not to watch: The NFL. Minnesota vs Carolina on Sunday Night football.
Who wants it more: No one
Prediction: MTSU by 7
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MAACO Las Vegas Bowl
BYU vs. Oregon State
Why to watch: On one side of the ball, BYU QB Max Hall and on the other, Mike Riley has the mighty Beavers playing great football finally.
Why not to watch: When BYU is bad, they are bad. They are the only team to not figure out the Florida St defense this year. If Max Hall doesn’t play well, it’ll be a blowout by halftime.
Who wants it more: Oregon State
Prediction: Hard to say, this is the Vegas Bowl. BYU players will be in bed by 10 pm and not tempted by the strip, Oregon St players will be at the Glitter Factory and playing blackjack until 4 in the morning. Still…
Oregon State by 7, based on their recent bowl history.
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SD County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
Utah vs California
Why to watch: Utah only lost three games this year (Oregon, TCU, and BYU) and Cal has a history of playing well in bowl games.
Why not to watch: This Utah team is a far cry from the one that beat Alabama last bowl season and Cal has played miserable at times and doesn’t want to be in this bowl.
Who wants it more: Utah
Prediction: Utah by 10
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Sheraton Hawaii Bowl
SMU vs Nevada
Why to watch: The Nevada offense. They should have 200 rushing yards by the time they get off the plane. SMU’s coach June Jones is returning to Hawaii to coach a game and the locals love him.
Why not to watch: SMU is not all that great and it’s not like the Mustangs are playing against Hawaii the university, just the state it’s in, so June Jones return isn’t that big of a deal.
Who wants it more: Nevada, because finally someone will be watching their game.
Prediction: Nevada by 17
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Emerald Nut Bowl
Boston College vs USC
Why to watch: Because it’s football. Despite their struggles, USC has over 50 players on it’s roster who were ranked in the top 20 by recruiting services at their position. BC has none.
Why not to watch: Because USC won’t want to play in this bowl at all and Boston College has to travel across the country on Christmas or Christmas Eve. Neither team has been great all year, with the exception of about 2-3 4th quarter drives for USC.
Who wants it more: ESPN
Prediction: USC by 3, but only because they have triple the amount of talent as BC and BC has to travel so far on a holiday. Players hate that.
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Meineke Car Care Bowl
North Carolina vs Pittsburgh
Why to watch: Pitt likes to play in close games, 6 of its last 9 games were decided by 7 pts or less. Both coaches are from the same coaching tree, Jimmy Johnson. And Pitt RB Dion Lewis.
Why not to watch: UNC’s offense is brutal to watch and their defense doesn’t always show up to play.
Who wants it more: Pitt
Prediction: Pitt by 10
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Little Caesars Pizza Bowl (because you eat your pizza out of a bowl, right?)
Marshall vs Ohio
Why to watch: I can’t really think of any. Spend the time with your family instead please.
Why not to watch: Herd are limping into this game, losing 4 of their last six and Ohio is tough, but not great. It’s Marshall vs Ohio.
Who wants it more: Little Caesars
Prediction: Ohio by 3
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Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl
Clemson vs Kentucky
Why to watch: CJ Spiller, who can break any play for a touchdown. Also, Randall Cobb for UK. First year coach Dabo Swinney vs retiring coach Rich Brooks.
Why not to watch: Clemson has lost and not played well in their last 3 bowl games and don’t want to be here after dropping their last two games, to rival South Carolina and then to Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship.
Who wants it more: Hard to tell, Kentucky has played in this game 3 out of the last 4 years so may not be excited about a return trip or could be motivated to prove it deserved a New Year Day bowl. Clemson should be down after the two losses, but the seniors do want to send CJ out a winner and finally win a bowl game. Probably Kentucky if just because it’s closer to home for them.
Prediction: Clemson by 3 in a high scoring shootout
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Independence Bowl
Texas A&M vs Georgia
Why to watch: Jerrod Johnson is uderrated at QB for Texas A&M and could be a Heisman candidate in the coming seasons if he sticks around. If you like to see high scoring games, this one shouldn’t be missed.
Why not to watch: If you like to watch defense, don’t watch this game. Georgia let go so many defensive staff at the end of the season, they promoted a grad assistant to defensive coordinator for this game. A&M hasn’t stopped anyone all year and Georgia may have figured out how to run the ball against Georgia Tech in their last game.
Who wants it more: Texas A&M, Georgia never likes playing in bowls unless they are BCS bowls.
Prediction: Texas A&M by 4 in another shootout
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Champs Sports Bowl
Miami vs Wisconsin
Why to watch: When they are playing well, both of these teams are BCS caliber teams. Miami wants to use this game to put itself on everyone’s watch list for 2010 when they feel they will have an amazing team. Wisconsin feels it should be in a New Years Day bowl and wants to prove it.
Why not to watch: Wisconsin got blown out by Florida State in last years Champs Sports bowl and this Miami team is better and faster than that FSU team.
Who wants it more: Miami
Prediction: Miami by 21
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EagleBank Bowl
UCLA vs Temple
Why to watch: Because you only get to see Temple play in bowl game every 30 years or so. RB Bernard Peirce for Temple, who is expected to play after suffering an injury, is worth watching.
Why not to watch: If UCLA tries, they will blow them out. As good of a story as Temple is this year, it’s still the MAC and they don’t have nearly the talent that UCLA has. That said, UCLA may not try though as they probably wanted a lot more.
Who wants it more: Temple
Prediction: Temple by 3, only because UCLA should feel slighted they had to wait for the results of the Army-Navy game to see if they even got in and I don’t see them getting motivated for the game. This is not the postseason Rick Neuheisel was telling his players about in the preseason.
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Pacific Life Holiday Bowl
Arizona vs Nebraska
Why to watch: Great defensive matchup between two great defensive minded coaches in college football right now. First to score wins. Plus, it’s another chance to see Big 12 defensive player of the year, Ndamukong Suh before he becomes the first pick of the NFL draft. I can’t wait to see how many times the announcers screw up his name.
Why not to watch: If you like offense. Arizona has a decent offense, but Nebraska should shut it down completely down.
Who wants it more: Arizona
Prediction: Arizona by 4
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Roady’s Humanitarian Bowl
Bowling Green vs Idaho
Why to watch: The Bowling Green passing game starring Freddie Barnes will put on a great show. Idaho may be the nation’s surprise team, but they are still 7-5 and have no marquee wins to hang their hat on.
Why not to watch: The blue turf could make you want to gouge your eyes out and spend all day adjusting the color options on your TV. Idaho’s defense gave up 70 points to Nevada, 63 points to Boise State and 52 points to Utah State and lost their last 3 games.
Who wants it more: Idaho, who is playing in their first bowl since most of the players on the team were 8.
Prediction: Bowling Green by 21, but expect a lot of points on both sides of the ball. I’m thinking 52-31, something like that.
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Texas Bowl
Missouri vs Navy
Why to watch: Danario Alexander is a great WR and the Missouri air attack will make this an exciting matchup. The Navy offense is no walk in the dark either.
Why not to watch: Missouri is 12th in the nation against the run and Navy won’t be able to catch up if they fall behind early. Navy has lost it’s last 3 bowl games.
Who wants it more: Navy
Prediction: Missouri by 17
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Bell Helicopters Armed Forces Bowl
Air Force vs Houston (rematch)
Why to watch: Houston can’t stop the run and Air Force should top 300 yards rushing. No one can stop Case Keenum from passing for 400 yards passing at a minimun.
Why not to watch: Both offenses are very high powered, but both have sputtered at times and sputtering in this game will put you behind by 21 points in a hurry. I’ve been high on AF all season because they force a lot of turnovers (and don’t turn the ball over themselves) and force teams to put up a lot of yards per point given up. However, Houston certainly has the ability to put up the yards needed to score on this team.
Who wants it more: Houston
Prediction: Houston by 14, this one has the potential to be very excited and one of the better bowls to watch
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Brut Sun Bowl
Stanford vs Oklahoma
Why to watch: Toby Gerhart vs the Oklahoma run defense. Toby should have won the Heisman if it were given to the player who had the best season and meant the most to his team, but it isn’t. Both teams really want this one. OU wants to prove that this year was a fluke and the result of too many injuries and Stanford wants to make its case to be everyone’s preseason darlings next season. A win here will be great on the recruiting trail for the Card that they are no longer the whipping post of the Pac-10.
Why not to watch: Oklahoma disappears in big games and plays mediocre away from home.
Who wants it more: Stanford
Prediction: Stanford by 10
I will post my picks for the rest of the games later tonight or tomorrow morning.
2009 Redshirtfootball.com All American Team
Time for our first ever All American teams. Just a brief explanation of a few things first. Only this year was taken into account, not a player’s entire career as this is a season award (like the Heismann was intended to be). Therefore, you won’t find Tim Tebow on this list but you would have found him on the 2008 or 2007 team had there been one. Also, yes, Mark Ingram is on our second team not our first team despite the fact that he’ll probably win the Heismann this year. That’s because the Heismann is just given to the best player on the best team these days and the quality of the team you play for and your draft stock was not taken into account for this, it is merely a reflection on your performance this season. Quite frankly, if some of the RBs on mediocre teams could have ran through the holes and had the blocking that Ingram had, no telling the stats they could have put up. I’m not sure CJ Spiller would have been tackled all season with a line like that, but still, Mark is a very good back and thus earns a spot as one of our 2nd team All Americans.
Frankly, looking at QB stats today, I was shocked to find out that Case Keenum had 5449 yds this season and the next closest in yardage was at 3868 yards. He also has 43 TD and a 71% completion percentage. What a season. Kellen Moore deserves more credit too as he had a 39 to 3 TD to INT ratio and the best passer rating in the country. Also, I’d heard of Carmen Messina of New Mexico but didn’t realize just how good he was until I saw his numbers today and watched a few highlights as I don’t normally catch many New Mexico games living on the East Coast. He had a shocking 162 tackles this season, a full 21 ahead of the next closest tackler.
So, without further ado…. our 2009 All American teams:
2009 1st Team All American Team
QB Kellen Moore – Boise St
QB Case Keenum – Houston
RB Toby Gerhart – Stanford
RB Ryan Mathews – Fresno State
WR Mardy Gilyard – Cincinnati
WR Freddie Barnes – Bowling Green
WR Danario Alexander – Missouri
TE Dennis Pitta – BYU
G Mike Johnson – Alabama
G Mike Iupti – Idaho
T Russell Okung – Oklahoma State
T Trent Williams – Oklahoma
C Kristofer O’Dowd – USC
KR CJ Spiller – Clemson
K Leigh Tiffin – Alabama
DE Jerry Hughes – TCU
DT O’Brien Schofield – Wisconsin
DT Ndamukon Suh – Nebraska
DE Joshua McNary – Army
LB Greg Jones – Michigan State
LB Luke Kuechly – Boston College
LB Carmen Messina – New Mexico
CB Eric Berry – Tennessee
CB Brian Lainhart – Kent State
CB Brandon Harris – Miami (FL)
S Earl Thomas – Texas
S DeAndre McDaniel – Clemson
PR Javier Arenas – Alabama
P Drew Butler – Georgia
2nd Team All American
QB Jimmy Clausen – Notre Dame
RB Dion Lewis – Pittsburgh
RB Mark Ingram – Alabama
WR Greg Salas – Hawaii
WR Golden Tate – Notre Dame
TE Aaron Hernandez – Florida
G Mitch Petrus – Arkansas
G John Moffitt, Wisconsin
T Adam Ulatoski – Texas
T Charles Brown – USC
C J.D. Walton – Baylor
KR Chris Owusu – Stanford
K Grant Ressel – Missouri
DE Derrick Morgan – Georgia Tech
DT Terrence Cody – Alabama
DT Robert Quinn – North Carolina
DE Brandon Graham – Michigan
LB Rolando McClain – Alabama
LB Von Miller – Texas A&M
LB Sam Maxwell – Kentucky
CB Myron Lewis – Vanderbilt
CB Perrish Cox – Oklahoma St
S Travis Bradshaw – Rice
S Rahim Moore – UCLA
PR Jeremy Kerley – TCU
P Zoltan Mesko – Michigan
Quick Hits
What an amazing day in sports we had yesterday. Bobby Bowden retires, Charlie Weis gets canned (along with Al Groh – which I predicted in the ACC Preview this year), Tiger Woods is human afterall, and that’s not including any actual sports that did or did not take place. It’s hard to tell that any did take place because I don’t really see any headlines on ESPN indicating that they did. That’s right, none of the top 10 top headlines concern actual games or matchups. Just about who’s retired, fired, traded, arrested and injured. What a day. Just a couple quick thoughts:
-I don’t really care much about the Tiger Woods deal. I will say that his driving has never been his forte. That tree and hydrant just jumped right out there just like the rough seems to. I’m sure he now realizes how much worse it is to shank an SUV into a tree than a 5 wood into one.
-I think Bobby and FSU are making the right choice even though it’s tough. They are falling behind to Florida and Miami quickly, and although I don’t think Jimbo Fisher is the right man for the job, something needed to be done. Recruits and players need to know who the coach is going to be down the road before they commit. Florida is going to lose a lot of talent on defense next year and Tebow, so they need to capitolize on that opportunity and stabilitity at the head coaching position is a step in the right direction.
-That said, I think this just proves how disasterous the coach-in-waiting scenario can be. I’m very much against the coach-in-waiting clauses and think you will see more and more of them play out with excess drama, wasted millions, and at the expense of the players. I understand succession planning in the workplace and see it’s value, but the circumstances are completely different with football. Recruiting, media, and publicity of the whole thing make it a much more fragile proposition. One can only ponder how many more transitions will have to implode before administrations begin to see it as the bad idea that it is.
-I enjoyed this article by Drew Sharp that appeared in last weeks USA Today. He indicates very pointedly that like GM and the rest of the American auto industry, ND and Michigan need to re-invent themselves before they become completely irrelevant. Turns out, selling cars is more than just brand name, and winning football games is too. Brand name doesn’t last forever, you have to constantly update your image, brand, and business to keep up with the times. GM didn’t do that, neither have ND and Michigan. They need to turn things around soon, irrelavance is standing at the and it’s knocking.
Northeastern Football
Northeastern University cut its football program this week citing that it was too costly to continue. Ironically, in an unrelated soliciated email, I saw a very relevant quote from Vince Lombardi. “A school without football is in danger or deteriorating into a medieval study hall.” I like that quote and think there is a lot of truth to it, even though today’s college football landscape is vastly different than the one of Lombardi’s era. The point he is trying to make though is that athletics provide a welcome break from studying for the students and from life in general for that matter for everyone else. Whereas it is a shame that they had to cut the program completely, I do understand their reasoning. They were unwilling to invest the amount of money it would take to be reasonably successful or above mediocre, attendence was ridicuously low and tuition cost is increasing (thus cost for each scholarship is increasing and football has the most scholarships of any sport). It would be a shame if the $3 million it cost to field the team just ended up lowering the schools operating budget by that amount. I do hope though that Northeastern will put the money that they were putting into football into other sports at the school and into intramurals, so that additional students can have the opportunity to compete in athletics and academics. I can’t help but wonder though if the football program could have been saved with a little effort. It’s a decent size school in a large market. Located in the Fenway Cultrural district in Boston (population 600,000+, 4.5 million metro area) and has 15,000+ undergraduates and 5,000+ graduate students. And their average attendance was 1,500! Something is not right there. They should still be able to draw a larger crowd than that, even with a bad team. If nothing else, pump up the family atmosphere, make the games fun for everyone and get people in the seats. Why were they not getting on residents calendar? Ask the average fan what the record of either team is at a minor league baseball game and I bet you that they can’t tell you. Your diehard football fans in the area are going to follow the Patriots or BC, but there are still plenty of casual fans out there and families looking for activities on a beautiful fall afternoon that you could be reaching. And your student population for crying out loud, where are they? Only 35% of your student population needs to show up for it to be a sellout. Listen, I’m familiar with economics, and I know it’s expensive to have a football team. But it’s important for a school to have a football team these days. Being America’s pastime now, it’s a great marketing tool and a way for people (like prospective students) to find out about your school. I wouldn’t know about over half of the colleges and universities that I know about if it wasn’t because of their athletic programs. So, in a way, I guess what I’m trying to say that I think Northeastern’s decision to cut football is bad one. The football program could have been fixed not with millions of dollars invested, but with the right marketing hire and promotions.
Dungy Name Dropping
The last thing I’d like for you to do is to read this post and think that I don’t like Tony Dungy. That’s not the case at all. I recently completed reading his book “Quiet Strength” and really enjoyed it. I’ve always respected him as a coach and as a person. However, it does irk me whenever some athlete or coach gets into trouble and then quickly drops Tony’s name and says they are going to work with him to resolve their problems. As if Dungy were some oracle who has all the answers. The latest case is Mike Locksley, head coach for New Mexico. The media and fans shouldn’t let these guys off the hook just because they are seeking out Dungy for advice and I think that the perception from coaches and athletes in trouble is that they should. Dungy has a lot of great things to say, but I feel like the modern athlete is too selfish, spoiled and undisciplined to listen and apply them to their lives to achieve real change. Instead, I see this as becoming “Oops, I screwed up again, better tell the reporters that I’m going to talk to Dungy about this.” I will say this though, I don’t like Tony being used as a scapegoat, however, I do wish more and more athletes and coaches would read his books and modeled their lives after Tony. The sports scene would be radically different. And in my opinion, since we are a behavior modelling society, our entire culture could potentially be changed.
“You should never be defined by what you do, by the things you have; you’ve got to define yourself by who you are and who you impact and how you impact people” – Tony Dungy
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